Rangga Wijaya Permana
Prodi Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Islam Bandung

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Inflasi, Suku Bunga BI Rate, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), (Studi pada Sektor Healthcare yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2020-2024) Rangga Wijaya Permana; Nurdin Nurdin
Bandung Conference Series: Business and Management 1135-1142
Publisher : UNISBA Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/bcsbm.v6i2.26284

Abstract

Abstract. The capital market plays an important role in supporting economic growth by mobilizing funds and providing investment alternatives for the public. The movement of the Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including inflation, the BI Rate, and the rupiah exchange rate. During the 2020–2024 period, these variables experienced significant fluctuations due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic recovery, which were expected to affect the movement of the IHSG. This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, the BI Rate, and the rupiah exchange rate on the Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) during the period of 2020–2024 in the healthcare sector. This research employed a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and Yahoo Finance. The data were analyzed using panel data regression with the Common Effect Model (Pooled Ordinary Least Squares/OLS), which was selected based on the results of the Chow Test and Hausman Test. The results indicate that, partially, inflation, the BI Rate, and the rupiah exchange rate have negative but statistically insignificant effects on the IHSG at the 5% significance level. However, simultaneously, these three variables have a significant effect on the IHSG, with an F-statistic of 19.5238 and a probability value of 0.0000. The coefficient of determination (R²) of 38.52% indicates that inflation, the BI Rate, and the rupiah exchange rate explain 38.52% of the variation in the IHSG, while the remaining 61.48% is explained by other factors outside the research model. Abstrak. Pasar modal memiliki peran penting dalam mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui penghimpunan dana dan penyediaan alternatif investasi bagi masyarakat. Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor makroekonomi, di antaranya inflasi, suku bunga BI Rate, dan nilai tukar rupiah. Selama periode 2020–2024, ketiga variabel tersebut mengalami fluktuasi akibat pandemi COVID-19 dan proses pemulihan ekonomi, sehingga diduga memengaruhi pergerakan IHSG. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh inflasi, suku bunga BI Rate, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap IHSG di Indonesia periode 2020–2024 pada sektor healthcare. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), dan Yahoo Finance. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel dengan Common Effect Model (Pooled Ordinary Least Squares/OLS) yang dipilih berdasarkan hasil Uji Chow dan Uji Hausman. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial inflasi, suku bunga BI Rate, dan nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh negatif tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap IHSG pada taraf signifikansi 5%. Namun, secara simultan ketiga variabel tersebut berpengaruh signifikan terhadap IHSG dengan nilai F-statistic sebesar 19,5238 dan probabilitas 0,0000. Nilai koefisien determinasi (R²) sebesar 38,52% menunjukkan bahwa inflasi, suku bunga BI Rate, dan nilai tukar rupiah mampu menjelaskan 38,52% variasi IHSG, sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain di luar model penelitian.