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All Journal Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking (CSEFB)
Puspitarini, Nectarina
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Determining the Cumulative Initial Return of IPO Stocks: A Comparative Analysis of the Bagger and Non-Bagger Groups Puspitarini, Nectarina; Hascaryani, Tyas Danarti
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Capital markets often exhibit anomalies in the form of extreme post-IPO price movements that are difficult to explain through conventional analysis. This study aims to analyze the determinants of Cumulative Initial Return (CIR) and differentiate the characteristics of financial signal influences between bagger and non-bagger stock groups on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2023-2025 period. Using a quantitative approach, 129 IPO companies were selected through purposive sampling. Analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression (OLS), the Chow Test, and interaction effects to identify the influence of fundamental variables and market indicators. The results show that fundamental factors (ROA, GPM, RG) and market indicators (initial return and offering share) significantly affect CIR, with striking differences in signal strength between the two groups. Bagger stocks exhibit a stronger response to profitability indicators and market momentum compared to non-bagger stocks. Therefore, investors should integrate fundamental and liquidity analysis to assess potential extreme returns and risks in emerging markets.
Co-Authors Tyas Danarti Hascaryani