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All Journal Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking (CSEFB)
Rismawan, Farrel
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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The Determinants of Indonesia's Economic Growth During the 2016–2024 Global Crisis Era Rismawan, Farrel; Rachmad Kresna Sakti
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This study examines the effects of monetary policy, fiscal policy, investment, and consumption on Indonesia’s economic growth during 2016–2024 in the context of global crises. It analyzes the impacts of the BI policy rate, government expenditure, bank investment credit, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), and the Retail Sales Index (RSI), while evaluating the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict using dummy variables. The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with three model specifications. The findings show that, in the long run, the BI policy rate and government expenditure negatively affect economic growth, whereas the Retail Sales Index has a positive effect. In the short run, bank investment credit, GFCF, and the Retail Sales Index positively influence growth. Crisis dummy variables are insignificant, indicating that crisis effects mainly operate through macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings highlight the need to balance economic stability, improve public spending effectiveness, and maintain household purchasing power.  
Co-Authors Rachmad Kresna Sakti