Annastry Widyakusuma
Tadulako Universty

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Education Expenditure, Social Protection Expenditure, and Poverty: The Moderating Role of Iepk in Achieving SDG 1 Outcomes Elvira Febriana M; Muhammad Din; Annastry Widyakusuma; Sugianto Sugianto
Agregat: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 10 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Prof. DR HAMKA.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22236/agregat_vol10.i2/23930

Abstract

This study examines the effects of education expenditure and social protection expenditure on poverty as an SDG 1 (No Poverty) outcome and investigates the moderating role of the Corruption Control Effectiveness Index (IEPK) in Indonesian local governments. Using balanced panel data from 34 provinces during 2022–2024, this study applies Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) estimated through the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method. The findings show that education expenditure has a negative and significant effect on poverty, indicating that greater education investment contributes to poverty reduction. In contrast, social protection expenditure has a positive and significant direct relationship with poverty, suggesting that higher allocations alone do not necessarily reduce poverty because their effectiveness depends on program targeting accuracy and implementation quality. Furthermore, IEPK has no direct effect on poverty but functions as a pure moderator by conditioning the relationship between government expenditure and poverty. Specifically, IEPK weakens the poverty-reducing effect of education expenditure while strengthening the effectiveness of social protection expenditure in reducing poverty. These findings highlight the importance of improving governance quality to enhance the effectiveness of public expenditure in achieving SDG 1