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All Journal Horizon: Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary
Fatkurrosyid, Mohammad Faiz
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Social Sciences Other

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Analisis Implementasi K3 Untuk Meningkatkan Keselamatan Kerja di Bengkel PT. Kalitelu Teknik Menggunakan Metode HIRARC Fatkurrosyid, Mohammad Faiz; Brillianio, Nindya Nuanda Ardha
HORIZON: Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Vol. 4 No. 4 (2026): HORIZON: Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary
Publisher : Lembaga Intelektual Muda (LIM) Maluku

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54373/hijm.v4i4.7258

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and compare the accuracy of the Double Moving Average (DMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) methods in forecasting the demand for fancy goldfish at the Wirajaya MSME. A descriptive-comparative quantitative approach was employed, utilizing historical monthly demand data for Ranchu, Oranda, and Lionhead goldfish from January to December 2025. The DMA method was tested using periods of n = 2, 3, and 4, while the SES method utilized smoothing parameters ranging from α = 0.1 to 0.9. Method accuracy was evaluated based on Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that DMA yielded MAPE values ​​of 5.97% for Ranchu, 4.91% for Oranda, and 6.47% for Lionhead. In contrast, SES produced MAPE values ​​of 10.33% for Ranchu (at α = 0.4), 7.58% for Oranda (at α = 0.5), and 10.14% for Lionhead (at α = 0.7). The comparison reveals that DMA achieved lower MAPE values ​​than SES across all three fish varieties. Consequently, DMA demonstrates superior forecasting accuracy and serves as a viable alternative for supporting production planning and inventory control of fancy goldfish at the Wirajaya MSME.
Co-Authors Brillianio, Nindya Nuanda Ardha