<![CDATA[Abstract. Capital expenditure is an essential instrument for providing public infrastructure and improving public service quality. However, the realization of capital expenditure by provincial governments in Indonesia has fluctuated due to regional fiscal capacity, central government transfers, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to examine the effects of Regional Original Revenue (PAD), General Allocation Fund (DAU), Special Allocation Fund (DAK), Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH), and the COVID-19 pandemic on the capital expenditure of provincial governments in Indonesia during the 2015–2024 period. This research employed a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget realization reports of all provincial governments in Indonesia, sourced from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance. The data were analyzed using panel data regression with EViews 12 software. The results indicate that PAD and DBH have a positive and significant effect on capital expenditure, while DAU and DAK have no significant effect. The COVID-19 pandemic variable has a negative and significant effect on capital expenditure. Simultaneously, all independent variables significantly affect capital expenditure. These findings suggest that regional fiscal capacity and revenue-sharing transfers play an important role in promoting regional government investment, whereas the COVID-19 pandemic reduced capital expenditure allocations due to changes in budget priorities. Abstrak. Belanja modal merupakan salah satu instrumen penting dalam penyediaan infrastruktur dan peningkatan pelayanan publik. Namun, realisasi belanja modal pemerintah provinsi di Indonesia masih menunjukkan fluktuasi yang dipengaruhi oleh kapasitas fiskal daerah, transfer pemerintah pusat, serta dampak pandemi COVID-19. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD), Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU), Dana Alokasi Khusus (DAK), Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH), dan pandemi COVID-19 terhadap belanja modal pemerintah provinsi di Indonesia periode 2015–2024. Penelitian menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan data sekunder berupa laporan realisasi Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Daerah seluruh pemerintah provinsi di Indonesia yang diperoleh dari Direktorat Jenderal Perimbangan Keuangan. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel dengan bantuan perangkat lunak EViews 12. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PAD dan DBH berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap belanja modal, sedangkan DAU dan DAK tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Variabel pandemi COVID-19 berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap belanja modal. Secara simultan, seluruh variabel independen berpengaruh signifikan terhadap belanja modal. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa kapasitas fiskal daerah dan transfer berbasis bagi hasil berperan penting dalam mendorong investasi pemerintah daerah, sementara pandemi menyebabkan penurunan alokasi belanja modal akibat perubahan prioritas anggaran.]]>
