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All Journal Jurnal Sains dan Informatika
Ahda Kamalia
Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut
Computer Science & IT Engineering Mathematics

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Peramalan Pendapatan Penjualan Pada Toko Kiki Tirtajaya Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linear Sederhana Herfia Rhomadhona; Ahda Kamalia; Desy Novita Sari; Muhammad Iqbal
Jurnal Sains dan Informatika Vol. 10 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Sains dan Informatika
Publisher : Teknik Informatika, Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34128/jsi.v10i1.1230

Abstract

Kiki Shop is a small business focusing on selling various basic necessities in Tirtajaya Village. In response to tight market competition, optimizing stock management and data-driven marketing strategies is highly essential. This study aims to apply a data mining technique specifically the Simple Linear Regression method to project daily store revenue. To comprehensively evaluate model reliability, accuracy performance was tested using three error metrics: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Based on computational results from historical transaction data, the regression model yielded a MAPE of 18.92%, an MAE of IDR 397,657.14, and an RMSE of IDR 492,237.13. Referring to standard classification, the MAPE value of 18.92% indicates that this forecasting model falls into the Good Forecasting category. The discrepancy between the RMSE and MAE values indicates the influence of extreme values (outliers) in the form of revenue spikes on certain days. Overall, this model is considered valid and representative to assist the business owner in inventory planning and minimizing operational risk.
Co-Authors Desy Novita Sari Herfia Rhomadhona Muhammad Iqbal