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All Journal Meteor STIP Marunda
Muhammad Fachruddin Raihan
Maritime Polytechnic of West Java, Padang, Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Transportation

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Behind the Numbers: A Trend Synthesis of Publicly Reported Indonesian Marine Casualty Investigation Data Achmad Ali Mashartanto; Muhammad Fachruddin Raihan; Rizal Rochmansyah
Meteor STIP Marunda Vol. 19 No. 1 (2026): Vol 19 No 1 (2026): June
Publisher : Meteor STIP Marunda

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Abstract

Indonesia's National Transportation Safety Committee (KNKT) has investigated marine casualties for nearly two decades, yet the statistics its reports and secondary analyses have produced remain scattered across studies with different time windows and units of analysis, preventing a coherent view of what has actually changed. This study synthesises publicly reported KNKT-derived marine casualty statistics spanning 2007 to 2025 from four independent sources, coding each for time period, accident category, and contributing factor to construct a trend account without requiring new access to raw KNKT case files. The synthesis indicates a declining investigation caseload from 2019 to 2023 followed by a sharp resurgence in 2024, a persistent and disproportionate concentration of fatalities in small fishing vessels that fall partly outside KNKT's formal investigation threshold, and a consistent, multi-decade dominance of human error as the leading contributing factor across every reporting period examined. The study's principal contribution is identifying a structural data-visibility gap — Indonesia's marine casualty statistics substantially undercount vessels below the 100-gross-tonnage investigation threshold — as a more consequential limitation than any single year-on-year fluctuation in the reported trend.
Co-Authors Achmad Ali Mashartanto Rizal Rochmansyah