I Gusti Ngurah Agung Surya Ananta
Universitas Udayana

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Analisis Dampak Pelaksanaan Pemilihan Presiden Tahun 2024 terhadap Trading Volume Activity dan Abnormal Return di Pasar Modal Indonesia: Event Study pada Perusahaan yang Tergabung dalam LQ45 I Gusti Ngurah Agung Surya Ananta; Ni Putu Ayu Darmayanti
OPTIMAL Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen Vol. 5 No. 4 (2025): Desember OPTIMAL: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/optimal.v5i4.7917

Abstract

The 2024 presidential election can be considered as a significant source of information for investors and a consideration in making decisions in the capital market. In the capital market context, political information such as elections can raise expectations regarding the direction of future economic, fiscal, and investment policies, which directly or indirectly impact investors' risk perceptions and profit prospects. Therefore, information content testing aims to observe the reaction to an announcement in this election, which can be measured through quantitative indicators such as Trading Volume Activity (TVA) and abnormal returns. The purpose of this study is to determine the difference in TVA and abnormal returns before and after the 2024 presidential election for companies included in the LQ45 index, an index consisting of stocks with high liquidity and large market capitalization on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The selection of the LQ45 as the research object is based on the assumption that these stocks are more sensitive to changes in macro information and market sentiment because they are the primary focus of institutional and retail investors. The sampling technique used purposive sampling, with an event window of 11 days, namely 5 trading days before and 5 trading days after the election. The data were analyzed using a paired sample t-test to identify significant differences before and after the election. The results showed a significant difference in Trading Volume Activity, reflecting an increase in stock trading activity before and after the election. This indicates that investors responded to the political event by increasing transactions, either due to fear, positive expectations, or short-term portfolio strategies.