Siti Choirotun Aisyah Putri
Postgraduate Students in Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Indonesia

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Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression For Modeling Overdispersion And Spatial Heterogeneity In Malnutrition Among Children Under Five In East Java Wanda Yudi; Nurul Aulya Bakri; Siti Choirotun Aisyah Putri; Aswi Aswi
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol. 15 No. 1 (2026): Volume 15 Nomor 1 (Maret 2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/ny32ty40

Abstract

Malnutrition among toddlers remains a major public health challenge in East Java Province and is shaped by diverse socio-economic and health factors that vary across regions. These disparities create spatial patterns that cannot be fully captured by global regression models. This study aims to analyse the spatial distribution of toddler malnutrition using Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR), which accommodates local variations in the relationships between predictors and the outcome. The study uses secondary data from the East Java Provincial Health Office and the Central Statistics Agency for 2023, covering 38 districts/cities. Exploratory results indicate overdispersion, supporting the use of the Negative Binomial model, while the Breusch–Pagan test confirms spatial heterogeneity. The GWNBR findings show that the number of infants with low birth weight, exclusive breastfeeding, the availability of community health centres, deliveries in health facilities, complete basic immunisation, and the proportion of poor households significantly affect the number of malnourished toddlers, with varying directions and magnitudes across districts/cities. Spatial mapping identifies three significance groups, indicating differences in dominant contributing factors between regions. Overall, the study concludes that GWNBR provides more accurate and spatially adaptive results and can serve as a basis for more targeted malnutrition-control policies.
Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression Modeling Of Childhood Pneumonia Cases In West Java Province  Abdul M. Achmad; Aswi Aswi; Siti Choirotun Aisyah Putri; Nurul Aulya Bakri; Wanda Yudi; Rahmawati
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol. 15 No. 1 (2026): Volume 15 Nomor 1 (Maret 2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/j60rfb72

Abstract

Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children under five in Indonesia, including in West Java Province, which records the highest number of childhood pneumonia cases nationally. The spatial variation in pneumonia incidence indicates substantial heterogeneity across regions that cannot be adequately captured by global regression models. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the number of pneumonia cases among children under five in West Java in 2024 using the Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) approach. Data were obtained from the West Java Provincial Health Office and Statistics Indonesia (BPS), comprising the number of pneumonia cases and predictor variables including exclusive breastfeeding coverage, poverty rate, percentage of low birth weight (LBW) infants, PHBS (clean and healthy living behavior), complete basic immunization coverage, and adequate housing. The global linear regression results show that not all variables have significant effects, and the model fails to adequately capture data variation, with indications of heteroskedasticity—thereby necessitating a spatial modeling approach. While the GWR model identifies local variation, model comparison demonstrates that the MGWR model performs best, yielding a lower AIC value (474.46) and a higher coefficient of determination (69.83%) than both GWR and the global model. MGWR identifies LBW and immunization coverage as global variables with consistent effects across all areas, whereas exclusive breastfeeding, PHBS, poverty, and adequate housing exhibit spatially varying influences. Cluster analysis using MGWR identifies five regional groups, each reflecting distinct determinants of childhood pneumonia in West Java. These findings highlight that public health interventions aimed at reducing childhood pneumonia must incorporate local spatial conditions, and MGWR provides a more appropriate analytical approach than global regression models.