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All Journal Journal of Management Review Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics Jurnal Ekonomi MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Indonesian Capital Market Review The South East Asian Journal of Management Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Sains Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Image : Jurnal Riset Manajemen
Lenny Suardi
Department Of Management, Faculty Of Economics And Business, Universitas Indonesia
Aerospace Engineering Humanities Astronomy Automotive Engineering Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Environmental Science Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Neuroscience Physics Social Sciences Other

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Survival Analysis of Stroke Incidence in National Health Insurance Participants from 2015–2020 Irfan Ilmi; Lenny Suardi
InPrime: Indonesian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/inprime.v7i2.49104

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the survival of stroke patients enrolled in the National Health Insurance (Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional, JKN) program and factors affecting it during the 2015–2020 period. Survival analysis was utilized using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox Proportional Hazards model. The dataset consisted of 12,773 stroke patients sampled from BPJS Kesehatan administrative records. The results indicate that since being registered as BPJS Kesehatan participants or from the baseline year 2015, stroke patients had an average survival time of 2,264 days, with a 95% confidence interval between 2,240 and 2,287 days. The Cox model revealed that patients aged 18–35, 36–50, 51–65, and >65 had Hazard Ratios (HR) of 1.30, 1.69, 2.47, and 3.52, respectively. Female patients exhibited a lower risk of death (HR = 0.81) than males. Employment segment effects were modest, and regional disparities were observed, with the Eastern region showing a higher risk (HR = 1.29). Comorbidities further increased hazards, with hypertension (HR = 1.70) and diabetes (HR = 2.17) significantly raising mortality risk. As one of the first large-scale survival analyses using JKN national data, this study offers novel evidence on key determinants of stroke outcomes in Indonesia. Its findings highlight critical risk factors and support more targeted, data-driven strategies for stroke prevention under universal health coverage. Keywords: Cox Proportional Hazard; Kaplan-Meier; National Health Insurance Agency; Stroke; Survival Analysis.   Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis survival pasien stroke yang terdaftar dalam program Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya selama periode 2015–2020. Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis survival dengan pendekatan Kaplan-Meier dan model Cox Proportional Hazards. Data yang dianalisis diambil dari sampel BPJS Kesehatan peserta JKN selama 2015–2020, yang berjumlah 12.773 pasien. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sejak terdaftar sebagai peserta BPJS Kesehatan atau sejak tahun dasar 2015, pasien stroke memiliki waktu survival rata-rata 2.264 hari, dengan interval kepercayaan 95% antara 2.240 dan 2.287 hari. Model Cox mengungkapkan pasien berusia 18–35, 36–50, 51–65, dan >65 memiliki HR masing-masing sebesar 1,30, 1,69, 2,47, dan 3,52. Perempuan memiliki risiko lebih rendah (HR = 0,81) dibandingkan laki-laki. Efek pada segmen pekerjaan relatif kecil, dan disparitas regional teramati, dengan wilayah Timur menunjukkan risiko yang lebih tinggi (HR = 1,29). Komorbiditas semakin meningkatkan risiko, dengan hipertensi (HR = 1,70) dan diabetes (HR = 2,17) secara signifikan meningkatkan risiko mortalitas. Sebagai salah satu analisis survival skala besar pertama yang menggunakan data nasional JKN, studi ini menawarkan bukti baru tentang determinan utama luaran stroke di Indonesia. Temuannya menyoroti faktor risiko kritis dan mendukung strategi pencegahan stroke yang lebih terarah dan berbasis data dalam kerangka jaminan kesehatan semesta. Kata Kunci: Cox Proportional Hazard; Kaplan-Meier; Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional; Stroke; Analisis survival. 2020MSC: 91G05.
PENENTUAN CADANGAN KLAIM IBNR LINI BISNIS ASURANSI ENERGI DI PERUSAHAAN REASURANSI XYZ DENGAN METODE BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON Lenny Suardi; Radifan Taufiqul Hafizh
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 13 No. 03 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v13n3.p531-544

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan cadangan klaim Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) pada lini bisnis asuransi energi di perusahaan Reasuransi XYZ dengan menggunakan Metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson, serta membandingkan keakuratannya dengan metode estimasi IBNR yang saat ini digunakan perusahaan (Metode Chain-Ladder). Latar belakang penelitian ini didasari oleh ketidakstabilan hasil bersih underwriting lini bisnis asuransi energi, yang dipengaruhi oleh fluktuasi cadangan klaim, terutama cadangan IBNR. Data yang digunakan berupa data primer dari perusahaan, mencakup pembayaran klaim, earned premium, dan laporan keuangan selama periode 2019–2023, serta data tahun 2024 sebagai data uji. Metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson diaplikasikan melalui pembentukan run-off triangle dan perhitungan expected losses. Evaluasi model dilakukan menggunakan indikator akurasi RRMSE dan MAPE. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson (Adjusted Loss Method) memberikan hasil estimasi IBNR yang lebih baik dibandingkan metode yang digunakan perusahaan saat ini, dengan nilai RRMSE sebesar 153,68% dan MAPE sebesar 53,99%. Meskipun demikian, nilai-nilai tersebut masih tergolong "poor" dan “inaccurate forecasting”.
Analysis of Changes in Investment Placement Strategies of Life Insurance Companies on Indonesia from January 2020 to December 2023 Mariam Benazir; Lenny Suardi
Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Sains Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026): Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Sains
Publisher : CV. Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59141/jiss.v7i2.2244

Abstract

The life insurance sector is still striving to expand in Indonesia, while a number of macroeconomic and regulatory changes are also taking place. These developments compel the sector to adjust its strategies to remain profitable and continue expanding while complying with laws and regulations. In the midst of shifting industry conditions between early 2020 and late 2023, the author observes a notable shift in investment patterns among Indonesian life insurance companies and examines these circumstances as well as their causes. This journal employs qualitative methodologies by analyzing data consisting of investment asset portfolio information and investment returns for Indonesian life insurance companies. Observations and in-depth interviews were conducted with key investment personnel in several life insurance firms to identify the variables impacting investment strategy adjustments made by Indonesian life insurance companies during the aforementioned period. The study also evaluates the effect that these strategic shifts have on total investment income and the commensurability between the companies’ assets and liabilities. According to the analysis and observations, several factors—such as modifications to tax laws governing bond investments, adjustments to regulations applicable to life insurance companies, and a decline in unit-linked product sales—have driven these changes. In light of these conditions, there is a pressing need for more detailed regulations governing investment strategy mechanisms and pricing provisions related to investments.
The Effect of Minimum Equity Requirements on the Profitability oof General Insurance Companies in Indonesia Siti Ayu Setia Nastiti; Lenny Suardi
Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Vol. 6 No. 8 (2026): Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59188/eduvest.v6i8.53258

Abstract

Indonesia’s general insurance industry plays an important role in maintaining financial system stability and providing protection against various financial risks. However, the introduction of Financial Services Authority Regulation (POJK) No. 23 of 2023, which increases minimum equity requirements, has created challenges for insurers, particularly regarding capital adequacy and profitability. This study aims to examine the effect of minimum equity requirements on the profitability and equity structure of general insurance companies in Indonesia. A quantitative approach was employed using panel data regression based on secondary data obtained from OJK Insurance Statistics and companies’ annual financial statements for 2021–2025. The sample comprised 67 general insurance companies, resulting in 335 observations. The results indicate that the implementation of POJK No. 23 of 2023 significantly increased insurers’ total equity, suggesting that the regulation encouraged companies to strengthen their capital structures. The regulation also demonstrated a positive effect on profitability, particularly Return on Equity (ROE), while its effect on Return on Assets (ROA) was comparatively weaker. However, compliance with the minimum equity threshold itself did not significantly affect either ROA or ROE. In conclusion, POJK No. 23 of 2023 is more effective in strengthening capital resilience and financial stability than in directly enhancing profitability among compliant general insurance companies.
Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Methods in Optimizing the Reinsurance Structure for Life Insurance Financing Products: A Case Study of PT Asuransi Jiwa Syariah XYZ Anindito Dwi Apriano; Lenny Suardi
Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Vol. 6 No. 8 (2026): Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59188/eduvest.v6i8.53259

Abstract

Reinsurance structure plays a critical role in balancing risk exposure, financial stability, and profitability in life insurance companies, particularly for portfolios characterized by substantial claim variability and extreme losses. This study aims to determine the optimal combination of quota-share (QS) and excess-of-loss (XL) reinsurance parameters for financing life insurance products at PT Asuransi Jiwa Syariah XYZ. A quantitative case study approach was employed using historical company data, including policies, claims, reinsurance claims, premiums, and reinsurance premiums. Claim distributions were modeled to accommodate the characteristics of both body and tail losses. A total of 1,000 QS–XL alternatives were evaluated using four performance indicators: ruin probability, profit, variance of retained risk, and expected utility. The Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) method was subsequently applied to rank the alternatives according to predetermined company preference weights. The results demonstrate a trade-off between risk retention and profitability, indicating that higher retention may increase profit while simultaneously increasing claim volatility and risk exposure. The COPRAS assessment identified the optimal structure at a quota-share retention proportion of 84.44% and an excess-of-loss retention limit of IDR 105,555,556. This study concludes that the COPRAS-based multi-attribute decision-making framework provides an objective and quantitative approach for selecting a reinsurance structure that balances profitability, utility, risk volatility, and ruin probability.
Survival Analysis of Tuberculosis Patients Among National Health Insurance Participants, 2015–2024 Agung Wicaksono; Lenny Suardi
Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Vol. 6 No. 8 (2026): Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59188/eduvest.v6i8.53270

Abstract

Indonesia ranks second globally in TB incidence, with an estimated 1 million new cases annually. The majority of TB patient care costs in Indonesia are covered through the National Health Insurance program administered by BPJS Kesehatan. This research aims to analyze the time to death pattern of TB patients enrolled in JKN, identify the factors influencing it, and compare the performance of the Cox PH and AFT models. The data used are BPJS Kesehatan sample data from the 2015–2024 period, with an observation window from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2024. The analysis was conducted on 111,946 patients, consisting of 10,083 patients (9.01%) who died and 101,863 patients (90.99%) who were censored. Analysis was carried out sequentially using the Kaplan-Meier method, the Cox PH Model, and the AFT Model with the Weibull distribution selected based on the best AIC, BIC, and Log-Likelihood values. Results showed a mean survival time of 879 days among TB patients. Age was the most dominant factor; patients above 60 years of age had a hazard ratio 8.09 times higher and a survival time 76% shorter compared to the 0–35 age group. Female patients had a survival time 28% longer than male patients. The PBI JK segment showed the highest mortality risk, while patients in Domicile 4 and 5 had shorter survival times compared to Domicile 1. The Schoenfeld residual test rejected the proportional hazards assumption, rendering the Weibull AFT model the most appropriate and best-fitting for this study.
Mortality Baseline Model Using Linear Time Series and Linear Mixed Model in Excess Mortality Calculation During COVID-19 in DKI Jakarta Maulia Dita Agistia; Lenny Suardi
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 11 No. 01 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v11n1.p1-7

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has affected the mortality across a globe. To investigate the impact of COVID-19, many countries have recorded number of deaths due to COVID-19. In Indonesia, DKI Jakarta reports the highest number of mortality due to COVID-19. However, the reported data may have discrepancy, for example the scope of testing for COVID-19 that has not been widely implemented, false-negative on testing results and deaths that occur before COVID-19 test. The measurement of excess mortality has been suggested to cover the lack of data. Baseline mortality will be the main component in calculating excess mortality. Monthly deaths data of DKI Jakarta from January 2018 up to February 2021 will be used to generate baseline mortality model. The analysis will compare two models, linear time series and linear mixed model. Model accuracy will be calculated to choose the better baseline mortality model. The better model of baseline mortality will give better estimation of excess mortality during COVID-19. Linear time series provides a better accuracy on baseline mortality model in DKI Jakarta. The result shows that there are 25,553 excess mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in DKI Jakarta from June 2020 until June 2021. The SMR during pandemic COVID-19 is around 133%.
ESTIMASI CADANGAN KLAIM IBNR PADA ASURANSI KREDIT MENGGUNAKAN METODE MUNICH CHAIN LADDER DAN BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON PADA PT XYZ Lenny Suardi
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 02 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

AUTOMATED TELLER MACHINE (ATM) DURABILITY ANALYSIS USING SURVIVAL ANALYSIS: EVIDENCE BASE IN INDONESIA Siska F Malau; Lenny Suardi
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 03 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n3.p507-517

Abstract

ANALISIS SURVIVAL TIME TO CLAIM PADA PRODUK ASURANSI JIWA BERJANGKA : STUDI KASUS PT XYZ Muthaqin Dhamar Widhoro Jati; Lenny Suardi
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 03 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n3.p518-527

Abstract

This study aims to determine the duration of time to claim from policyholders of term life insurance products based on the characteristics of age, gender, marital status, premium amount, sum insured, insurance period and distribution channel using survival analysis. Survival data in this study is the policy period from the beginning of the observation period until the claim submission. By using term life insurance coverage data from 2018 to 2023 with a total of 6,070 data consisting of 632 claim data as claim occurrence data and 5,438 censored data. The method used in this study is nonparametric analysis in the form of Kaplan-Meier estimation (limit product estimation) to determine the survival probability of policyholders based on covariates that are thought to affect them. The semi-parametric analysis uses the Cox proportional hazard model to determine the relationship between the claim duration variable and the covariates in the model. The result of this study is that all covariates are significantly effect on claim duration and the best model obtained fulfil the proportional hazard assumption.Keywords: Term Life Insurance, Survival Analysis, Kaplan-Meier Estimation; Cox Proportional Hazard
Co-Authors Agung Wicaksono Anindito Dwi Apriano Beaty, Zuly Puspita Dadang Dwi Panjaya Permadi Dhanawan Prasidya Soegondo Dwi Nastiti Danarsari Euodia Adriana Sinaga Ghazali, Fajri Alan, Mr. Hakim, Fahmi Ilmi, Irfan Irfan Ilmi Joshua Aditia Nugroho Lukman Hanif Arbi M. Syamsudin M. Syamsudin, M. Mariam Benazir Maulia Dita Agistia Muthaqin Dhamar Widhoro Jati Radifan Taufiqul Hafizh Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti Ririen Setiati Risca Fleureta Hudiyono Siska F Malau Siti Ayu Setia Nastiti Vicia Dwiartha Rini Viverita Yogo Purwono Zaafri Ananto Husodo Zaäfri Ananto Husodo