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All Journal ETIKONOMI Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia
Muchlisoh, Siti
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Poverty Map sebagai Potret Ketimpangan Pendapatan Area Kecil di Kota Yogyakarta Widyawati, Dewi; Muchlisoh, Siti
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 22, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Inequality occurs in the process of economic development along with differences in the natural resources and infrastructure owned by each region. Income inequality reduction programs require accurate data collection and have to reach the smallest areas. This study discusses the application of the Elbers, Lanjouw, and Lanjouw (ELL) and Counterfactual methods to obtain estimates of income inequality indicators at the sub-district and village levels in the Kota Yogyakarta and map them in the form of a poverty map. The data used are Population Census 2010, SUSENAS (2010 and 2018), PODES (2011 and 2018), as well as other BPS publications. The results showed that the estimator of income inequality using the ELL method has a smaller RSE value than the direct estimation results. Poverty Map presents a snap-shot of the distribution of the level of inequality in a relatively heterogeneous small area.
Determinan Kinerja Usaha E-Commerce di Pulau Jawa Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Tahun 2020 Syahirah, Athaya Salwa; Muchlisoh, Siti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2023 No 1 (2023): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1665

Abstract

Covid-19 has pushed companies to close their businesses and increased unemployment. Indonesia now has to fight harder to overcome the problems of poverty and unemployment plus health problems. Based on BPS data, Indonesia's TPT in August 2020 increased by 1.84 percent compared to August 2019. Covid-19 also encourages the use of E-Commerce by the community in running their businesses. Businesses that have utilized E-Commerce are still mostly concentrated in Java. This study aims to determine the general description of E-Commerce business performance and the variables that are thought to affect it in Java during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and analyze these variables and their trends. The method used is binary logistic regression analysis. The results show that E-Commerce business owners who are female, belong to Gen Z and Y, started selling online in 2017-2020, have financial statements, use agents, and experience an increase in online sales volume during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 have a tendency to experience a greater increase in business performance than E-Commerce businesses with other characteristics.
Penerapan Regresi Logistik Biner untuk Menganalisis Determinan Status Stunting Pada Balita di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah Tahun 2018 Pamungkas, Eross Wahyu; Muchlisoh, Siti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2023 No 1 (2023): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1744

Abstract

Stunting is still a nutritional problem experienced in several provinces in Indonesia. Central Sulawesi is one of the provinces in Indonesia with a stunting prevalence above the national rate. The stunting prevalence of Central Sulawesi Province in 2018 was 32.3 percent. This figure is still far from the World Health Organization standard, which is 20 percent for low category stunting. In the period 2018-2021, the decline in the prevalence of stunting among children under five in Central Sulawesi Province also tends to be slow compared to other provinces. In addition, the distribution of stunting in Central Sulawesi Province based on districts and cities also varies. This study aims to determine the determinants of stunting in toddlers in Central Sulawesi Province in 2018 using Riskesdas data. The method used in this study is binary logistic regression. The results of this study are, father's education, mother's education, and SEZ status in mothers have a significant effect on the stunting status of toddlers. Therefore, the government needs to optimize the 12-year compulsory education program, and pay attention to maternal health by improving existing health facilities.
Blue Economy Sebagai Solusi Keluar Dari Middle Income Trap Ayuningtyas, Agian Dila; Muchlisoh, Siti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2267

Abstract

From 2001 to 2021, the income slowdown in Indonesia has led to the middle-income trap phenomenon. Indonesia has significant potential in the blue economy sector due to its vast marine area of 6,4 million square kilometers, 1,8 million hectares of seagrass beds, and 3,4 million hectares of mangroves. This potential can be leveraged by Indonesia as an alternative solution to the middle-income trap issue. This study uses World Bank and World Tourism Data from 2001-2021. A multiple linear regression model is employed to determine the impact of blue economy variables on Indonesia's national per capita income. The results show that blue economy variables such as aquaculture production and total sea containers positively impact. Conversely, capture fisheries production and marine tourism negatively impact, while the percentage of protected areas has no significant effect on Indonesia's national per capita income. Policy simulation results indicate that increasing capture fisheries and aquaculture production can be a solution to overcome the middle-income trap.
Competitiveness and Factors Affecting Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Export: An Evidence from Eight Main Destination Countries Novaldi, Jeremia; Muchlisoh, Siti
ETIKONOMI Vol 24, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/etk.v24i1.37841

Abstract

Research Originality: This research contribution focused on Indonesia's natural rubber productivity and the role of importer industrial sector development in Indonesia's natural rubber exports.Research Objectives: This research analyzed Indonesia's natural rubber export competitiveness and the effect of productivity, importer industrial sector development, and export price on Indonesia's natural rubber export volume.Research Methods: This research used secondary data from the World Bank, FAO, and UN Comtrade. The dataset covers eight countries from 2002 to 2022. Revealed comparative advantage (RCA), export product dynamics (EPD), and x-model potential export products are applied to analyze export competitiveness. In contrast, panel regression is applied to analyze the determinants of export.Empirical Results: The results showed that Indonesia's natural rubber competitiveness has declined since 2018. Nevertheless, Indonesia's natural rubber is still competitive, and its expansion in the main-destination countries is considered potential. Natural rubber productivity, importer industrial sector development, and export price positively and significantly impact natural rubber export volume.Implications: Indonesia's natural rubber competitiveness has declined. Hence, improving natural rubber quality would be suggested. Moreover, the positive impact of productivity can be maximized by building supporting infrastructure and upgrading production technologies.JEL Classification: C33, F14, Q17How to Cite:Novaldi, J., & Muchlisoh, S. (2025). Competitiveness and Factors Affecting Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Export: An Evidence from Eight Main Destination Countries. Etikonomi, 24(1), 175 – 190. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v24i1.37841.
Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Individual dan Kontekstual terhadap Status Pengangguran pada Angkatan Kerja Usia Muda Lulusan SMK di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2023 Amelia, Izumi Citra; Muchlisoh, Siti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2481

Abstract

Efforts to increase employment opportunities can be done through vocational education, namely SMK. Central Java is a province that has adequate carrying capacity to organize vocational education. However, in reality, the TPT of SMK graduates in Central Java is still high and has increased. The TPT is dominated by the labor force aged 15-24 years. This can lead to socioeconomic problems. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the variables that affect the unemployment status of young vocational graduates in Central Java Province in 2023. This study uses Sakernas raw data for August 2023, BPS publications. This research was analyzed descriptively and inferentially using multilevel binary logistic regression. Based on the research results, the variables that have a significant effect on unemployment status at the individual level are gender, marital status, field of expertise, and year of graduation. Then at the district/city level, the variables include HDI and GRDP. Meanwhile, the pre-employment program participation variable has no significant effect on unemployment status.
Estimating the Unemployment Rate at Sub-District Level in West Java Province in 2024 Using Hierarchical Bayesian Approach with Cluster Information Aditya, Randy Daffa; Zukhrufah, Awika; Auliya, Eksis; Widyastuti, Dyah; Lubis, Adrian; Nugraha, Anggie; Muchlisoh, Siti
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.518

Abstract

Unemployment is a substantial obstacle to growth in Indonesia, affecting both socialand economic stability. The Unemployment Rate is a crucial metric that quantifies the proportionof the labor force actively pursuing work opportunities. The unemployment rate serves as acritical indicator of labor market imbalances, essential for labor policy formulation andassessment. Nonetheless, unemployment data has limitations, particularly at the micro-level,owing to sample constraints. Small Area Estimation (SAE) can address these constraints. Thisstudy estimates the unemployment rate at the sub-district level in West Java province for 2024utilizing the Hierarchical Bayes Beta methodology and clustering techniques. The modelingresults indicate that most sub-districts exhibit a low to medium unemployment rate, however 21locations demonstrate a very high unemployment rate, ranging from 23.00 percent to 48.06percent.
Forecasting Indonesian Monthly Rice Prices at Milling Level Using Google Trends and Official Statistics Data Swardanasuta, I Bagus Putu; Sofa, Wahyuni Andriana; Muchlisoh, Siti; Wijayanto, Arie Wahyu
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.521

Abstract

Hunger is a very complex social issue to address. Alleviating hunger is closely related to achieving food security, which is a goal in realizing the second Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), zero hunger. The most frequently consumed food commodity by the Indonesian population is rice, which has fluctuating prices in the market. Therefore, price forecasting is necessary so that the government can take preventive measures against rice price increases at certain times. Research on rice price forecasting using big data from Google Trends is still very rare in Indonesia, even though Google Trends has great potential to reflect the public's search popularity for certain keywords. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the monthly medium rice price in Indonesia at the milling level using exogenous variables of dried milled grain prices and the popularity index of related keywords on Google Trends. The forecasting is conducted using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), SARIMA with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. The SARIMAX model has the best performance in forecasting rice prices, with a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 941.6933, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 817.9021, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.0620.
Co-Authors Aditya, Randy Daffa Amelia, Izumi Citra Arie Wahyu Wijayanto Auliya, Eksis Ayuningtyas, Agian Dila Dyah Widyastuti Lubis, Adrian Novaldi, Jeremia Nugraha, Anggie Pamungkas, Eross Wahyu Sofa, Wahyuni Andriana Swardanasuta, I Bagus Putu Syahirah, Athaya Salwa Widyawati, Dewi Zukhrufah, Awika