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Journal : PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS

Estimating the Unemployment Rate at Sub-District Level in West Java Province in 2024 Using Hierarchical Bayesian Approach with Cluster Information Aditya, Randy Daffa; Zukhrufah, Awika; Auliya, Eksis; Widyastuti, Dyah; Lubis, Adrian; Nugraha, Anggie; Muchlisoh, Siti
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.518

Abstract

Unemployment is a substantial obstacle to growth in Indonesia, affecting both socialand economic stability. The Unemployment Rate is a crucial metric that quantifies the proportionof the labor force actively pursuing work opportunities. The unemployment rate serves as acritical indicator of labor market imbalances, essential for labor policy formulation andassessment. Nonetheless, unemployment data has limitations, particularly at the micro-level,owing to sample constraints. Small Area Estimation (SAE) can address these constraints. Thisstudy estimates the unemployment rate at the sub-district level in West Java province for 2024utilizing the Hierarchical Bayes Beta methodology and clustering techniques. The modelingresults indicate that most sub-districts exhibit a low to medium unemployment rate, however 21locations demonstrate a very high unemployment rate, ranging from 23.00 percent to 48.06percent.
Forecasting Indonesian Monthly Rice Prices at Milling Level Using Google Trends and Official Statistics Data Swardanasuta, I Bagus Putu; Sofa, Wahyuni Andriana; Muchlisoh, Siti; Wijayanto, Arie Wahyu
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.521

Abstract

Hunger is a very complex social issue to address. Alleviating hunger is closely related to achieving food security, which is a goal in realizing the second Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), zero hunger. The most frequently consumed food commodity by the Indonesian population is rice, which has fluctuating prices in the market. Therefore, price forecasting is necessary so that the government can take preventive measures against rice price increases at certain times. Research on rice price forecasting using big data from Google Trends is still very rare in Indonesia, even though Google Trends has great potential to reflect the public's search popularity for certain keywords. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the monthly medium rice price in Indonesia at the milling level using exogenous variables of dried milled grain prices and the popularity index of related keywords on Google Trends. The forecasting is conducted using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), SARIMA with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. The SARIMAX model has the best performance in forecasting rice prices, with a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 941.6933, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 817.9021, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.0620.