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All Journal ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Journal of Creative Student Research
Arifin Fattah
Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Social Sciences Transportation

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Analisis Proyeksi Model dan Hasil Perdagangan Jagung Indonesia dengan Indikator Ratio Eskpor-Impor (RP), Indeks Spesialisasi Perdagangan (ISP) dan Relative Comparative Advantage (RCA) Pada Periode 2024-2038 Tryas Munarsyah; Mohammad Natsir; Arifin Fattah
Journal of Creative Student Research Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): April : Journal of Creative Student Research
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jcsr-politama.v4i2.6054

Abstract

This study aims to project the performance of Indonesia’s corn trade for the period 2024–2038 using the Export-Import Ratio (RP), Trade Specialization Index (ISP), and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indicators. The secondary data used cover the period 1982–2023 and are sourced from BPS, PUSDATIN, and FAO. The analytical method employs a quantitative time-series approach using Holt Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA models, evaluated based on R², RMSE, MAE, MAPE, BIC, as well as residual diagnostics (ACF and PACF) from IBM SPSS 27 output. The results show that the best model for RP is ARIMA (1,1,2) with performance values of R²=0.985; RMSE=0.071; MAE=0.042; MAPE=4.921%; and BIC=-3.922, with residuals meeting the white noise assumption (ACF ranging from -0.325 to 0.279 and PACF from -0.325 to 0.226). For ISP, the best model is ARIMA (1,1,0) with R²=0.959; RMSE=0.123; MAE=0.076; MAPE=9.891%; and BIC=-3.019, with residuals behaving randomly (ACF from -0.257 to 0.19 and PACF from -0.257 to 0.19). Meanwhile, RCA also uses ARIMA (1,1,0) with R²=0.978; RMSE=0.018; MAE=0.012; MAPE=68.076%; and BIC=-6.985, with residuals approaching white noise (ACF from -0.257 to 0.209 and PACF from -0.305 to 0.278). The selection of these models indicates that Indonesia’s corn trade performance for the period 2024–2038 is characterized by improving competitiveness without structural transformation. RP is projected to remain negative in the range of -0.899 to -0.909, confirming Indonesia’s status as a net importer. ISP shows improvement from -0.8378 to -0.7390, while RCA increases from 0.0160 to 0.0284, but remains far below the comparative advantage threshold (RCA > 1). Overall, although there is an upward trend in all trade competitiveness indicators, the improvements are gradual and not yet strong enough to transform the structure of Indonesia’s corn trade.
ANALISIS DETERMINAN DAN DAYA SAING EKSPOR KARET ALAM INDONESIA: STUDI KOMPARATIF DENGAN KELAPA SAWIT Wanda Arethusa; Mohammad Natsir; Arifin Fattah; Syafiuddin -; Irma Sribianti
ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Vol 51 No 3 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Jurnal Universitas Islam Kalimantan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31602/zmip.v51i3.23938

Abstract

Komoditas karet alam Indonesia  adalah salah satu komoditas unggulan yang menjadi primadona ekspor. Indonesia memiliki perannya sebagai salah satu eksportir karet alam terbesar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tren, mengestimasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi volume ekspor karet alam Indonesia, serta menganalisis daya saing komoditas karet alam dengan membandingkannya terhadap kelapa sawit. Jenis penelitian yaitu kuantitatif menggunakan data sekunder (time series) periode 2014 - 2023. Sumber data yaitu TradeMap, Badan Pusat Statistik, dan World Bank. Teknik analisis data menggunakan analisis tren, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Indeks Spesialisasi Perdagangan (ISP), dan regresi linear berganda dengan pendekatan logaritma natural. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan tren volume ekspor karet alam Indonesia selama periode 2014 - 2023 menunjukkan tren fluktuatif dengan kecenderungan menurun. Pada tahun 2017 sebesar 2,9 juta ton (US$5,1 miliar). Sedangkan, ekspor kelapa sawit menunjukkan stabilitas yang lebih tinggi, volume sebesar 28,26 juta ton tahun 2019 dan nilai ekspor tertinggi pada tahun 2022 sebesar US$27,77 miliar. Analisis daya saing menunjukkan bahwa karet alam dan kelapa sawit memiliki daya saing komparatif karena nilai RCA berada di atas 1. Namun, kelapa sawit memiliki daya saing dan spesialisasi perdagangan yang lebih kuat dibandingkan karet alam. ISP karet alam menurun dari 0,97 pada 2014 menjadi 0,88 pada 2023, sedangkan ISP kelapa sawit relatif stabil dan mendekati angka 1 selama periode penelitian. Analisis determinan diketahui variabel model menjelaskan 52,1% variasi volume ekspor karet alam Indonesia, sementara 47,9% sisanya dipengaruhi faktor lain. Secara parsial, harga karet alam dunia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan sedangkan harga kelapa sawit dunia berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan.
Co-Authors Mohammad Natsir Sribianti, Irma Syafiuddin - Tryas Munarsyah Wanda Arethusa