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All Journal ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Jurnal Agribis SENTRI: Jurnal Riset Ilmiah
Mohammad Natsir
Master Of Agribusiness Study Program, Postgraduate Program, University Of Muhammadiyah Makassar, South Sulawesi, Indonesia
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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ANALISIS KOMPARATIF RISIKO HARGA KOMODITI BAWANG MERAH DAN BAWANG PUTIH DI SULAWESI SELATAN Tanty Azisah; Mohammad Natsir; Nurdin Mappa; Ratnawati Tahir; Sri Mardiyati
ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Vol 51, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Jurnal Universitas Islam Kalimantan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31602/zmip.v51i2.23119

Abstract

Risk is defined as the probability of an expected event occurring. An increase in the probability of a small profit will increase the risk of a business. Price fluctuations are a common occurrence in the marketing of shallots and garlic commodities. This study aims to analyze the price risks of shallots and garlic and compare them in South Sulawesi Province. This research is quantitative, with time series data on shallot and garlic prices in South Sulawesi Province from 2021 to 2025 sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Makassar City, South Sulawesi, the South Sulawesi Provincial Food Security Office, the Strategic Food Price Information Center, and other sources. The research data was collected using literature study techniques. Data analysis techniques include Variance Calculation, Standard Deviation, and Coefficient of Variation to analyze price risk, and a t-test to compare the risk levels of shallot and garlic prices. The results showed that the average price of garlic in South Sulawesi (Rp 29,345.69/kg) was higher than that of shallots (Rp 27,933.33/kg) during the 2021-2025 period. Although both commodities have high price volatility and fluctuations (standard deviation of 7.675), shallots pose a higher risk due to their higher coefficient of variation (75.85%) compared to garlic (63.92%). The t-test results revealed a significant difference between the average prices of shallots and garlic in South Sulawesi Province for the period 2021 to 2025. This was concluded because the significance value of 0.025 < 0.05 and the calculated t-value (2.2427) > t-table (1.9646).
RISIKO HARGA DAN RISIKO PRODUKSI USAHATANI RUMPUT LAUT DI KECAMATAN POLEWALI KABUPATEN POLEWALI MANDAR Muhammad Nur Alamsyah Ali; Syafiuddin Syafiuddin; Sri Mardiyati; Mohammad Natsir; Nurdin Nurdin
ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Vol 51, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Jurnal Universitas Islam Kalimantan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31602/zmip.v51i2.23228

Abstract

This study examines production and price risks in seaweed farming in Polewali District, Polewali Mandar Regency, which influence farmers' income uncertainty. The study aimed to identify and quantify the level of production and price risks. The method used was a quantitative approach with primary and secondary data, as well as descriptive statistical analysis through the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation (CV). The sample was determined by simple random sampling of 32 farmers. The results showed that production risk was high (CV = 0.80) due to environmental factors and disease attacks, while price risk was low (CV = 0.09) due to relatively stable prices. These findings contribute to the development of basic education, particularly in contextual learning based on real-world problems in the agribusiness sector.
ANALISIS RISIKO HARGA KOMODITAS CABAI PADA PASAR TRADISIONAL DAN MODERN DI SULAWESI SELATAN Fatmawati Akib; Sri Mardiyati; Nurdin Mappa; Mohammad Natsir; Muh. Arifin Fattah
ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Vol 51, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Jurnal Universitas Islam Kalimantan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31602/zmip.v51i2.23123

Abstract

Chili is a commodity or horticultural crop with significant economic value in Indonesia. Price issues for chili commodities continue to occur. There are indications that chili prices fluctuate in Indonesia over a certain period. This study aims to determine chili price fluctuations and trends, chili price risks, and compare the level of chili price risk in traditional and modern markets in South Sulawesi Province. This type of research is quantitative. The type of data in this study is secondary data (time series). The data sources are the Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS) and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Makassar City, South Sulawesi. The data collected are chili commodity prices in modern and traditional markets from January to December 2024. Data analysis techniques include multiple linear regression analysis (trend analysis) to determine chili price trends, calculation of the coefficient of variation to analyze price risk, and partial testing using the t-test to compare price risk levels. The results show that the price trend of large red chilies, curly red chilies, and red cayenne peppers in traditional and modern markets has experienced a downward trend with a relatively low level of price fluctuation. The price risk of large red chilies, curly red chilies, and red cayenne peppers, based on the coefficient of variation analysis, shows a coefficient of variation (CV) value > 0.5, indicating that these three chili commodities do not have a high price risk. A comparison of the price risk level of large red chilies in modern markets shows a calculated t value of -6.418 > t table 1.984, curly red chilies have a calculated t value of -9.008 > t table 1.984, and red cayenne peppers show a calculated t value of -6.249 > t table 1.984. This means that there is a significant difference in the price risk of red cayenne peppers between traditional and modern markets. 
Analisis Resiko Produksi Resiko Harga dan Pendapatan Pada Usahatani Cabai Rawit di Desa Pakkabba Kecamatan Galesong Utara Kabupaten Takalar Rahmatullah Hidayat; Mohammad Natsir; Ardi Rumallang
Jurnal Agribis Vol. 10 No. 2 (2022): Jurnal Agribis
Publisher : Universitas Muslim Maros

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46918/agribis.v10i2.1537

Abstract

This study aims to determine the analysis of production risk, price risk and income on cayenne pepper farming in Pakkabba Village, North Galesong District, Takalar Regency. The population of cayenne pepper farmers in Pakkabba Village, North Galesong District, Takalar Regency is 25 people. The technique of determining the sample is carried out by the Census method. Data collection is carried out by interviews. The results showed that the product risk analysis was 0.38 and the price risk obtained was 0.36. This means that the production risk and price risk in cayenne pepper farming in Pakkabba village are classified as moderate. Meanwhile, the income of cayenne pepper farmers in Pakkabba Village, North Galesong District, Takalar Regency is Rp. 26,331,915.
Pengaruh Benih Subsidi Terhadap Produksi Usahatani Padi Sawah di Desa Pakkabba Kecamatan Galesong Utara Kabupaten Takalar Mursyid Efendi; Mohammad Natsir; Ardi Rumallang
Jurnal Agribis Vol. 10 No. 2 (2022): Jurnal Agribis
Publisher : Universitas Muslim Maros

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46918/agribis.v10i2.1538

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of subsidized seeds on rice production in Pakkabba Village, North Galesong District, Takalar Regency. The population collection in this study was carried out intentionally or purposively, namely rice farmers in Pakkabba Village. Meanwhile, for the determination of the sample is done by random sampling that is randomly taking 30 respondents from a population of 300 rice farmers. Data analysis used linear regression data analysis. The results showed that subsidized seeds had a positive effect on rice production in Pakkabba Village. The results of multiple linear regression analysis showed that the type of seed used, the use of fertilizer, and labor had a positive and significant effect on rice production in Pakkabba Village, North Galesong District, Takalar Regency.
Dinamika Luas Panen dan Harga Komoditas terhadap Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Tanaman Pangan di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah: Analisis Time Series Ayu Cahya Ningsih; Sri Mardiyanti; Amruddin Amruddin; Mohammad Natsir
SENTRI: Jurnal Riset Ilmiah Vol. 4 No. 12 (2025): SENTRI : Jurnal Riset Ilmiah, Desember 2025
Publisher : LPPM Institut Pendidikan Nusantara Global

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55681/sentri.v4i12.5054

Abstract

This study examines the influence of harvested area and commodity prices on the Farmers’ Terms of Trade (NTP) in Central Sulawesi, a region where fluctuations in agricultural production significantly affect farmers’ welfare. The topic is considered important because NTP is widely used as an indicator of farmers’ purchasing power and economic resilience, while changes in harvested area and commodity prices often create instability in income and production outcomes. Using a quantitative research design with time-series data, the study analyzes the relationship between harvested area, commodity prices, and NTP over the 2024 period. Regression analysis was employed to determine the magnitude of influence of each variable and to quantify how much of the variation in NTP can be explained by these factors. The results show that both harvested area and commodity prices have a significant positive effect on NTP, with an R-squared value of 0.82, indicating that 82% of the variation in NTP is explained by these variables. However, a 7.1% decline in harvested area in 2024 led to a decrease in NTP from 102.45 to 98.21, despite a 4–5% increase in the prices of rice and corn. The rise in commodity prices was insufficient to offset the increasing production costs, resulting in a decline in farmers’ purchasing power. These findings highlight the vulnerability of farmers to production shocks and price fluctuations, emphasizing the need for policies that stabilize input costs, support productivity improvements, and strengthen farmers’ economic resilience.
RISIKO HARGA PRODUSEN DAN KONSUMEN KOMODITAS CABAI RAWIT DI KABUPATEN GOWA Muh Reynaldi Armansyah; Ratnawati Tahir; Jumiati Jumiati; Muh Arifin Fattah; Mohammad Natsir; Sri Mardiyati
ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Vol 51 No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Jurnal Universitas Islam Kalimantan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31602/zmip.v51i1.21738

Abstract

Risiko harga cabai rawit merupakan salah satu aspek penting karena berpengaruh langsung terhadap pendapatan produsen maupun beban pengeluaran konsumen. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di Kabupaten Gowa. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui tingkat risiko harga komoditas cabai rawit di Tingkat produsen dan konsumen di Kabupaten Gowa. Metode yang digunakan yaitu data sekunder, data time series harga bulanan cabai rawit tingkat produsen dan konsumen dari bulan Januari 2022 hingga Oktober 2025 bersumber dari Dinas Ketahanan Pangan Kabupaten Gowa. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai risiko harga koefisien variasi produsen sebesar 0,46 %, bahwa risiko harga cabai rawit di tingkat produsen berada pada kategori risiko rendah karena angka KV lebih kecil dari 0,5. Serta nilai risiko harga koefisien variasi konsumen sebesar 0,36 % nilai koefisien variasi yang rendah di bawah 0,5. Hal ini dapat dilihat bahwa risiko biaya cabai rawit oleh produsen dan konsumen yakni pada cuaca yang tidak menentu serta fluktuasi harga saat menjelang hari besar.Kata kunci: Risiko Harga, Fluktuasi, Cabai Rawit, Produsen, Konsumen.
ANALISIS KOMPARATIF RISIKO HARGA KOMODITI BAWANG MERAH DAN BAWANG PUTIH DI SULAWESI SELATAN Tanty Azisah; Mohammad Natsir; Nurdin Mappa; Ratnawati Tahir; Sri Mardiyati
ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Vol 51 No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Jurnal Universitas Islam Kalimantan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31602/zmip.v51i2.23119

Abstract

Risk is defined as the probability of an expected event occurring. An increase in the probability of a small profit will increase the risk of a business. Price fluctuations are a common occurrence in the marketing of shallots and garlic commodities. This study aims to analyze the price risks of shallots and garlic and compare them in South Sulawesi Province. This research is quantitative, with time series data on shallot and garlic prices in South Sulawesi Province from 2021 to 2025 sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Makassar City, South Sulawesi, the South Sulawesi Provincial Food Security Office, the Strategic Food Price Information Center, and other sources. The research data was collected using literature study techniques. Data analysis techniques include Variance Calculation, Standard Deviation, and Coefficient of Variation to analyze price risk, and a t-test to compare the risk levels of shallot and garlic prices. The results showed that the average price of garlic in South Sulawesi (Rp 29,345.69/kg) was higher than that of shallots (Rp 27,933.33/kg) during the 2021-2025 period. Although both commodities have high price volatility and fluctuations (standard deviation of 7.675), shallots pose a higher risk due to their higher coefficient of variation (75.85%) compared to garlic (63.92%). The t-test results revealed a significant difference between the average prices of shallots and garlic in South Sulawesi Province for the period 2021 to 2025. This was concluded because the significance value of 0.025 < 0.05 and the calculated t-value (2.2427) > t-table (1.9646).
ANALISIS RISIKO HARGA KOMODITAS CABAI PADA PASAR TRADISIONAL DAN MODERN DI SULAWESI SELATAN Fatmawati Akib; Sri Mardiyati; Nurdin Mappa; Mohammad Natsir; Muh. Arifin Fattah
ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Vol 51 No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Jurnal Universitas Islam Kalimantan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31602/zmip.v51i2.23123

Abstract

Chili is a commodity or horticultural crop with significant economic value in Indonesia. Price issues for chili commodities continue to occur. There are indications that chili prices fluctuate in Indonesia over a certain period. This study aims to determine chili price fluctuations and trends, chili price risks, and compare the level of chili price risk in traditional and modern markets in South Sulawesi Province. This type of research is quantitative. The type of data in this study is secondary data (time series). The data sources are the Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS) and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Makassar City, South Sulawesi. The data collected are chili commodity prices in modern and traditional markets from January to December 2024. Data analysis techniques include multiple linear regression analysis (trend analysis) to determine chili price trends, calculation of the coefficient of variation to analyze price risk, and partial testing using the t-test to compare price risk levels. The results show that the price trend of large red chilies, curly red chilies, and red cayenne peppers in traditional and modern markets has experienced a downward trend with a relatively low level of price fluctuation. The price risk of large red chilies, curly red chilies, and red cayenne peppers, based on the coefficient of variation analysis, shows a coefficient of variation (CV) value > 0.5, indicating that these three chili commodities do not have a high price risk. A comparison of the price risk level of large red chilies in modern markets shows a calculated t value of -6.418 > t table 1.984, curly red chilies have a calculated t value of -9.008 > t table 1.984, and red cayenne peppers show a calculated t value of -6.249 > t table 1.984. This means that there is a significant difference in the price risk of red cayenne peppers between traditional and modern markets. 
RISIKO HARGA DAN RISIKO PRODUKSI USAHATANI RUMPUT LAUT DI KECAMATAN POLEWALI KABUPATEN POLEWALI MANDAR Muhammad Nur Alamsyah Ali; Syafiuddin Syafiuddin; Sri Mardiyati; Mohammad Natsir; Nurdin Nurdin
ZIRAA'AH MAJALAH ILMIAH PERTANIAN Vol 51 No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Jurnal Universitas Islam Kalimantan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31602/zmip.v51i2.23228

Abstract

This study examines production and price risks in seaweed farming in Polewali District, Polewali Mandar Regency, which influence farmers' income uncertainty. The study aimed to identify and quantify the level of production and price risks. The method used was a quantitative approach with primary and secondary data, as well as descriptive statistical analysis through the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation (CV). The sample was determined by simple random sampling of 32 farmers. The results showed that production risk was high (CV = 0.80) due to environmental factors and disease attacks, while price risk was low (CV = 0.09) due to relatively stable prices. These findings contribute to the development of basic education, particularly in contextual learning based on real-world problems in the agribusiness sector.
Co-Authors Amin, Jumiati Amruddin Amruddin Ardi Rumallang Ayu Cahya Ningsih Fatmawati Akib Fatmawaty Fatmawaty Mardiyati, Sri Muh Arifin Fattah Muh Reynaldi Armansyah Muh. Arifin Fattah Muhammad Nur Alamsyah Ali Mursyid Efendi Nurdin Mappa Nurdin Nurdin Rahmatullah Hidayat Ratnawati Tahir Sri Mardiyanti Sri Mardiyati Syafiuddin Syafiuddin Syafiuddin Syafiuddin Tanty Azisah