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Muliandi Muliandi
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Automotive Engineering Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Optimizing Toll Tariffs through System Dynamics: Evidence from Tebing Tinggi-Sinaksak Muliandi Muliandi; M Ridwan Anas; Gina Cynthia Raphita Hasibuan
International Journal Of Economics Social And Technology Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026): September 2026
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Ilmiah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59086/ijest.v5i3.2375

Abstract

Toll pricing on the Tebing Tinggi-Sinaksak corridor must reconcile user benefits and willingness to pay with traffic demand, operator revenue, and long-term investment recovery. This study develops a corridor-specific system-dynamics policy model that integrates vehicle operating-cost and time-saving benefits (BKBOK), secondary Willingness to Pay (WTP) evidence, route shifting, toll revenue, and Net Present Value (NPV). The model represents a 45-km tolled route and a 49-km non-toll alternative, uses corridor traffic and speed data, WTP evidence from 100 Class-I respondents, and investment and operation-maintenance inputs, and compares four discrete BKBOK-component scenarios (30%, 50%, 70%, and 100%) over a 50-year horizon. Revenue increases from the 30% to the 50% case because the higher tariff more than offsets the moderate reduction in modeled users; beyond 50%, traffic loss dominates the price increase. Among the four tested scenarios, the 50% case produces the highest annual revenue (IDR 1.53884 trillion) and the highest NPV at discount rates of 6%, 8%, and 10%, but NPV becomes negative at 12%. The study's contribution is the corridor-specific integration of user-benefit pricing, payment acceptance, route response, and financial feasibility rather than the use of system dynamics itself. The 50% case is therefore the best-performing tested scenario, not a universal optimum; tariff policy should be reviewed periodically using updated demand, WTP, service, and financing evidence.  
Co-Authors Gina Cynthia M Ridwan Anas