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All Journal International Journal Of Economics Social And Technology
M Ridwan Anas
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Automotive Engineering Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Spatial Analysis of Vehicle Emissions at Signalized Intersections in Medan City Zaki Fikri; M Ridwan Anas; Gina Cynthia Raphita Hasibuan
International Journal Of Economics Social And Technology Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026): September 2026
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Ilmiah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59086/ijest.v5i3.2373

Abstract

Signalized intersections in Medan combine heterogeneous traffic with repeated stopping and queueing, but operational congestion does not necessarily identify the largest emission sources. This study integrates PKJI 2023 traffic-performance indicators, five-pollutant emission estimation, exploratory regression, and QGIS mapping at 16 purposively selected intersections. Estimated aggregate emission mass rates, not measured ambient concentrations, ranged from 1,738.24 to 35,645.35 kg/hour in the reported inventory; CO2 was the largest mass component. The intersection with the longest queue and delay did not have the highest estimated emissions. The original regression yielded R² = 0.6787 and adjusted R² = 0.5984. A diagnostic refit of the rounded tabulated data gave F(3, 12) = 8.452, nominal p = 0.0027, but revealed severe delay–queue collinearity and an observation with leverage 0.9976. Coefficients therefore describe conditional associations and do not establish causal effects. Sixteen archived map layouts provide relative source-intensity visualization; the recovered Sisingamangaraja–Ir. H. Juanda–Halat layout closes the previous map gap, but the archived GIS outputs are not methodologically homogeneous and do not establish atmospheric dispersion or exposure. The integrated framework can inform the selection of sites for operational and environmental monitoring. Uniform observation intervals, traceable emission factors and time normalization, and reproducible GIS settings are needed before absolute prediction or intervention benefits can be validated.
Optimizing Toll Tariffs through System Dynamics: Evidence from Tebing Tinggi-Sinaksak Muliandi Muliandi; M Ridwan Anas; Gina Cynthia Raphita Hasibuan
International Journal Of Economics Social And Technology Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026): September 2026
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Ilmiah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59086/ijest.v5i3.2375

Abstract

Toll pricing on the Tebing Tinggi-Sinaksak corridor must reconcile user benefits and willingness to pay with traffic demand, operator revenue, and long-term investment recovery. This study develops a corridor-specific system-dynamics policy model that integrates vehicle operating-cost and time-saving benefits (BKBOK), secondary Willingness to Pay (WTP) evidence, route shifting, toll revenue, and Net Present Value (NPV). The model represents a 45-km tolled route and a 49-km non-toll alternative, uses corridor traffic and speed data, WTP evidence from 100 Class-I respondents, and investment and operation-maintenance inputs, and compares four discrete BKBOK-component scenarios (30%, 50%, 70%, and 100%) over a 50-year horizon. Revenue increases from the 30% to the 50% case because the higher tariff more than offsets the moderate reduction in modeled users; beyond 50%, traffic loss dominates the price increase. Among the four tested scenarios, the 50% case produces the highest annual revenue (IDR 1.53884 trillion) and the highest NPV at discount rates of 6%, 8%, and 10%, but NPV becomes negative at 12%. The study's contribution is the corridor-specific integration of user-benefit pricing, payment acceptance, route response, and financial feasibility rather than the use of system dynamics itself. The 50% case is therefore the best-performing tested scenario, not a universal optimum; tariff policy should be reviewed periodically using updated demand, WTP, service, and financing evidence.  
Financial Feasibility of Electric and Diesel Buses for Medan BRT Corridor 5: Lapangan Merdeka-Tembung Riza Fouzan; M Ridwan Anas; Gina Cynthia Raphita Hasibuan
International Journal Of Economics Social And Technology Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026): September 2026
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Ilmiah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59086/ijest.v5i3.2376

Abstract

This study evaluates which financing conditions make battery-electric buses financially feasible relative to a diesel comparator on Medan BRT Corridor 5, Lapangan Merdeka-Tembung. Unlike studies that report a single technology or total-cost ranking, the analysis compares three operator financing architectures—full CAPEX+OPEX responsibility, public absorption of CAPEX, and Buy the Service—while jointly testing passenger demand, discount rate, electricity price, and carbon valuation. A 12-year quantitative comparative case study uses eight-bus corridor operating assumptions, 12 direction-period peak passenger-count observations collected on three working days in April 2026, and annual operator passenger data for April 2025-March 2026. NPV, IRR, Payback Period, and scenario sensitivity are evaluated from the operator perspective. The electric alternative requires more than twice the initial capital but has about 21% lower annual OPEX. Under full CAPEX+OPEX responsibility, neither technology is financially feasible at the base assumptions; after CAPEX is removed from operator cash flow, the reported electric-bus case becomes feasible, and under Buy the Service both alternatives are feasible. Across the tested ranges, load factor shifts the feasibility boundary more strongly than electricity-price variation, while the study-level carbon-value scenario is too small to reverse the base decision. The findings show that Corridor 5 electrification is constrained primarily by financing architecture and sustained demand rather than by electric operating efficiency. Policy should therefore combine capital support or performance-based service payments with measures that sustain utilization.  
Co-Authors Gina Cynthia Muliandi Muliandi Riza Fouzan Zaki Fikri