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All Journal International Journal Of Economics Social And Technology
Riza Fouzan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Automotive Engineering Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Financial Feasibility of Electric and Diesel Buses for Medan BRT Corridor 5: Lapangan Merdeka-Tembung Riza Fouzan; M Ridwan Anas; Gina Cynthia Raphita Hasibuan
International Journal Of Economics Social And Technology Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026): September 2026
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Ilmiah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59086/ijest.v5i3.2376

Abstract

This study evaluates which financing conditions make battery-electric buses financially feasible relative to a diesel comparator on Medan BRT Corridor 5, Lapangan Merdeka-Tembung. Unlike studies that report a single technology or total-cost ranking, the analysis compares three operator financing architectures—full CAPEX+OPEX responsibility, public absorption of CAPEX, and Buy the Service—while jointly testing passenger demand, discount rate, electricity price, and carbon valuation. A 12-year quantitative comparative case study uses eight-bus corridor operating assumptions, 12 direction-period peak passenger-count observations collected on three working days in April 2026, and annual operator passenger data for April 2025-March 2026. NPV, IRR, Payback Period, and scenario sensitivity are evaluated from the operator perspective. The electric alternative requires more than twice the initial capital but has about 21% lower annual OPEX. Under full CAPEX+OPEX responsibility, neither technology is financially feasible at the base assumptions; after CAPEX is removed from operator cash flow, the reported electric-bus case becomes feasible, and under Buy the Service both alternatives are feasible. Across the tested ranges, load factor shifts the feasibility boundary more strongly than electricity-price variation, while the study-level carbon-value scenario is too small to reverse the base decision. The findings show that Corridor 5 electrification is constrained primarily by financing architecture and sustained demand rather than by electric operating efficiency. Policy should therefore combine capital support or performance-based service payments with measures that sustain utilization.  
Co-Authors Gina Cynthia M Ridwan Anas