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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications
Haruna, Hammed A.
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Computer Science & IT Education Mathematics Other

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A Delay Differential Equation Model for Nipah Virus Transmission with Vaccination and Hospital Amplification Onitilo, Sefiu; Adepoju, Julius; Ajani, Abiodun S.; Haruna, Hammed A.; Ayeni, Sheriffat T.; Odetunde, Opeyemi
Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications
Publisher : Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.ijma.2026.004.02.5

Abstract

Nipah virus (NiV) is a deadly zoonosis capable of human-to-human transmission and amplification via hospital settings. In this paper, we formulate a delay differential equations model of NiV with seven states (susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, asymptomatically infected, symptomatically infected, hospitalized, and recovered) considering incubation delay, partial vaccine efficacy, waning immunity, and transmission within hospitals. The basic reproduction number R₀ is calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. If R₀ < 1, then there is global stability of the disease-free equilibrium; and an endemic equilibrium exists uniquely when R₀ > 1. Simulations using parameter values based on outbreaks in Bangladesh and Malaysia reveal that human-to-human transmission outdoes zoonotic spillover, while vaccination rate and efficacy and recovery rate in hospitals emerge as key control parameters.
Co-Authors Adepoju, Julius Ajani, Abiodun S. Ayeni, Sheriffat T. Odetunde, Opeyemi Onitilo, Sefiu