<![CDATA[Indonesia's food estate programme has been studied mainly from legal, political-ecological and agronomic perspectives, leaving unexplained where along the policy's causal chain public investment fails to become food security. This study evaluates the food estate policy in Central Kalimantan Province and identifies the points and mechanisms at which the input–activity–output–outcome chain breaks down. A theory-driven qualitative evaluation with a post-positivist stance was applied, using the logic model as the analytical frame. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with purposively selected key informants (provincial and district officials, sub-district heads, extension workers, field supervisors and farmers in Kapuas Regency), field observation and document analysis, and were analysed through open, axial and selective coding with source and method triangulation. The findings reveal a cascading implementation gap. Despite a 2025 budget of IDR 5.1 trillion, only 43 of 156 (27.6%) agricultural machinery units delivered to the province were operational; each extension worker served at least eight farmer groups, twice the ideal ratio; average rice productivity (2–3.5 t/ha) remained below the provincial (3.8 t/ha) and national (5.2 t/ha) averages; the cassava component produced almost nothing; and farm-gate prices exceeded the government purchase price by only 3.9%, a margin eroded by rising production costs. Theoretically, the study introduces the concept of a cascading implementation gap and extends logic-model evaluation into a diagnostic tool by explaining, through implementation and high-modernism theories, why top-down inputs fail to translate into outcomes on fragile peatlands. Practically, it calls for land-suitability-based, participatory and phased intensification instead of massive extensification.]]>
