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All Journal International Journal of Educational Research and Social Sciences (IJERSC)
Suriadi Suriadi
Master of Development Economics Study Program, University of Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Other

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Evaluation of The Government Purchase Price Policy (HPP) of Grain On The Exchange Rate of Rice Farmers: An Analysis Study Of The Provinces of The Special Region of Yogyakarta and Central Java Suriadi Suriadi; Imamudin Yuliadi; Agus Tri Basuki
International Journal of Educational Research & Social Sciences Vol. 7 No. 5 (2026): October 2026
Publisher : CV. Inara in Colaboration with www.stie-sampit.ac.id

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51601/ijersc.v7i5.1081

Abstract

Farmer Terms of Trade (NTP) is a key indicator of farmer welfare, reflecting the relationship between prices received and prices paid by farmers. This study analyzes the determinants of NTP across 40 regencies/cities in the Special Region of Yogyakarta and Central Java during 2018–2025 using regency-level panel data regression (n = 320). The variables examined include the Government Purchase Price (HPP) of unhusked rice, inflation, poverty, subsidized fertilizer price, and agricultural productivity. Sequential specification tests (Chow and Hausman) indicate that the Fixed Effects model with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors is the most appropriate estimator to address the autocorrelation and cross-sectional dependence detected in diagnostic testing. The estimation results show that HPP and productivity have a significant positive effect on NTP, while poverty has a significant negative effect; inflation and subsidized fertilizer price show no significant effect. The model explains 52.1% of the variation in NTP (within R²). These findings confirm that price-stabilization policy and productivity improvement are the primary instruments for strengthening rice farmers' welfare.
Co-Authors Agus Tri Basuki Imamudin Yuliadi