<![CDATA[Farmer Terms of Trade (NTP) is a key indicator of farmer welfare, reflecting the relationship between prices received and prices paid by farmers. This study analyzes the determinants of NTP across 40 regencies/cities in the Special Region of Yogyakarta and Central Java during 2018–2025 using regency-level panel data regression (n = 320). The variables examined include the Government Purchase Price (HPP) of unhusked rice, inflation, poverty, subsidized fertilizer price, and agricultural productivity. Sequential specification tests (Chow and Hausman) indicate that the Fixed Effects model with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors is the most appropriate estimator to address the autocorrelation and cross-sectional dependence detected in diagnostic testing. The estimation results show that HPP and productivity have a significant positive effect on NTP, while poverty has a significant negative effect; inflation and subsidized fertilizer price show no significant effect. The model explains 52.1% of the variation in NTP (within R²). These findings confirm that price-stabilization policy and productivity improvement are the primary instruments for strengthening rice farmers' welfare.]]>
Copyrights © 2026
