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All Journal EKONOMIS : Journal of Economics and Business
Julia Nur Aini
UIN Sulthan Thaha Saifuddin Jambi
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Analisis Determinasi Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) di Provinsi Jambi Ogi Saputra; Olin Anugra Heni; Julia Nur Aini
Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business Vol 10, No 2 (2026): September
Publisher : Universitas Batanghari Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33087/ekonomis.v10i2.2991

Abstract

Local own-source revenue (PAD) is a key indicator of fiscal autonomy under regional decentralization. This study examines the effects of gross regional domestic product (GRDP), inflation, government expenditure, population, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on PAD in Jambi Province from 2003 to 2025. A causal quantitative design is applied using annual time-series data from Statistics Indonesia and related agencies. The analysis employs a double-log multiple linear regression model. Partially, population has a positive and significant effect on PAD, while government expenditure is significant but negative. GRDP, inflation, and FDI are insignificant at the 5 percent level. Simultaneously, the five variables significantly affect PAD, with an R² of 98.25 percent. The findings indicate that PAD in Jambi is more sensitive to the expansion of the demographic tax base than to output size or FDI inflows, and that larger public spending does not automatically raise own-source revenue. The Jambi Provincial Government should strengthen population-based tax administration, improve the composition of spending, and link economic growth and FDI to local tax objects within the framework of the HKPD Law.
Co-Authors Ogi Saputra Olin Anugra Heni