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Effendi Mohamad
Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Malaysia
Aerospace Engineering Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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Stochastic–dynamic Modelling of Performance Degradation in a Grid-connected Rooftop Photovoltaic System Dani Yuniawan; Vetty Kartikasari; Rahman Arifuddin; Effendi Mohamad
Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences Vol. 58 No. 6 (2026): Vol. 58 No. 6(2026): December (In Progress)
Publisher : Directorate for Research and Innovation, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/j.eng.technol.sci.2026.58.6.7

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of climatic variability and long-term module degradation on the technical performance of a 100-kWp grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic system installed on a university campus in a humid tropical climate. A 65-month observational dataset covering January 2020 to May 2025 was combined with 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations and a dynamic feedback model to estimate energy yield, performance ratio (PR), and performance degradation over a 25-year operating period. The simulated annual energy yield ranged from 111 to 129 MWh yr⁻¹ (P10–P90), with a median specific yield of approximately 1,200 kWh kWp⁻¹ yr⁻¹, while the PR remained within 0.75–0.80. A literature-informed two-stage degradation scenario—0.55% yr⁻¹ during Years 1–10 and 1.00% yr⁻¹ during Years 11–25—resulted in an estimated cumulative energy loss of 8.7% relative to the no-degradation baseline. Sobol sensitivity analysis identified the PR residual as the dominant contributor to annual energy-yield variance, followed by irradiance, temperature, and degradation. By preserving irradiance–temperature dependence through paired bootstrap resampling and incorporating time-dependent degradation, the proposed framework provides a more realistic representation of both short-term uncertainty and long-term performance decline. Applications to other humid tropical locations require site-specific inputs and independent validation.
Co-Authors Dani Yuniawan Rahman Arifuddin Vetty Kartikasari