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All Journal Jurnal Nawala Politika
Virza Utama Alamsyah
Taruna Bakti University
Social Sciences

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Iran-US War and ASEAN Economic Stability: Structural Shock, Energy Interdependence, and the Limits of ASEAN Centrality Virza Utama Alamsyah; Zaenal Muttaqien
Jurnal Nawala Politika Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): Jurnal Nawala Politika
Publisher : Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social and Political Science, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/jnp.v4i2.3716

Abstract

The 2026 Iran–United States War and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz show that ASEAN’s economic vulnerability depends not only on energy prices but also on simultaneous shifts in physical supply, marine insurance, trade finance, and sanctions regulations, while each country’s capacity to adjust varies. This article employs Keohane and Nye’s concept of complex interdependence to understand sensitivity and vulnerability in terms of shock costs and adjustment costs, as well as Farrell and Newman’s concept of weaponized interdependence to explain the influence of financial networks and compliance mechanisms beyond ASEAN’s control. Through qualitative process tracing, document analysis, and cross-country comparisons, the study traces the chain from the Hormuz disruption to logistical pressures, fiscal responses, commercial decisions, and regional coordination. The results show that while ASEAN mitigated some initial pressures, adjustment costs remained high because of dependence on Middle Eastern oil, limited substitution options, reserve and fiscal gaps, uncertainty over sanctions, and regional emergency regulations that remain voluntary. ASEAN Centrality helps with coordination, but the bloc lacks the material capacity to share risks and supply equitably.
Co-Authors Zaenal Muttaqien