Novia Hanifa Surbakti
Universitas Negeri Medan

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From Tariff Threats to Trade Agreements: An Analysis of U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policies toward Indonesian Trade Khairani Alawiyah Matondang; Novia Hanifa Surbakti; Khairun Nisa; Miftahul Jannah
The Future of Education Journal Vol 5 No 3 (2026)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbitan dan Publikasi Ilmiah Yayasan Pendidikan Tumpuan Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61445/e7kh5d40

Abstract

The United States is one of Indonesia’s important trading partners, particularly as a major destination for Indonesian exports. Changes in United States tariff policy therefore have implications for Indonesia’s international trade performance. This study aims to analyze the changes in United States reciprocal tariff policy and their relation to the development of Indonesian exports to the United States during 2025–2026. This study uses a descriptive quantitative approach based on secondary data obtained from official sources. The data include Indonesian export values to the United States, exchange rate information, and official documents related to United States tariff policies. Data were analyzed descriptively by comparing trade developments before and after changes in tariff policy and presenting the results through tables and narrative analysis. The results show that Indonesian exports to the United States remained relatively strong amid changes in United States tariff policy. In 2025, Indonesian exports to the United States reached US$30.96 billion, while imports amounted to US$12.85 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US$18.11 billion. In early 2026, the United States remained one of Indonesia’s major non-oil and gas export destinations. The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade established an additional reciprocal tariff rate of up to 19 percent for most Indonesian products, with specific products receiving different tariff treatment. These findings indicate that tariff policy is an important factor in the Indonesia–United States trading environment, although export performance is also influenced by market demand, product competitiveness, exchange rates, and broader international trade conditions.
The Effects of Fossil Energy Consumption and Renewable Energy Investment on Indonesia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Analysis within the Green Economy Framework Bonaraja Purba; Grace Sari Adinda Pakpahan; Novia Hanifa Surbakti; Rifka Ajeng Nurbalqis
The Future of Education Journal Vol 5 No 3 (2026)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbitan dan Publikasi Ilmiah Yayasan Pendidikan Tumpuan Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61445/frd4hz25

Abstract

This study aims to the relationship between fossil energy consumption, renewable energy development, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Indonesia within the framework of a green econmy. The study employs a descriptive quantitative approach using secondary data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) for the 2020–2024 period, covering the Energy Flow Accounts and GHG Emissions Accounts, along with supporting data from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK), the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), and various related scientific literature. The results show that fossil energy consumption particularly coal continues to dominate Indonesia's energy input structure, reaching 96.89% of total natural energy inputs in 2024, while the renewable energy contribution actually declined from 3.51% (2020) to 3.11% (2024). Total GHG emissions increased from 820,375 GgCO₂e (2020) to 1,040,663 GgCO₂e (2024), with the Manufacturing and Electricity and Gas Supply sectors contributing 71.88% of emissions across all industries. The emission intensity of the Manufacturing sector increased by 41% during the study period, indicating that decoupling between economic growth and emissions has not yet occurred. Renewable energy development, as reflected by the renewable energy mix, showed a declining trend, from 7.20% in 2020 to 4.97% in 2024, which occurred alongside an approximately 6% increase in national GHG emission intensity. This study concludes that Indonesia’s continued dependence on fossil energy and the limited development of renewable energy occurred alongside increasing GHG emissions, indicating that the transition toward a green economy has not yet been optimal. This study recommends increased investment in renewable energy research and development, accelerated pro-renewable energy policies, and strengthening of an integrated green economy policy framework.