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Aland Fery Habuga
Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

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INFLATION AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON INDONESIA’S TRADE BALANCE IN THE ASEAN REGION: AN ISLAMIC ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE Aland Fery Habuga; Muhammad Iqbal; Dinda Fali Rifan
I-Finance Journal Vol 12 No 1 (2026): I-FINANCE: a Research Journal on Islamic Finance
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Fatah Palembang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19109/ifinance.v12i1.34540

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of inflation and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Indonesia’s trade balance in the ASEAN region during the 2019–2023 period from an Islamic economic perspective. The novelty of this research lies in its integration of empirical macroeconomic analysis during global supply chain disruptions and the COVID-19 pandemic using Sharia economic principles as the primary framework. The research employs a causal-associative quantitative approach with panel data regression analysis. The population covers Indonesia's trade data with 10 ASEAN countries, while the sample was selected using a total sampling technique, resulting in 9 active partner countries with annual panel data (45 observations). Based on model specification tests, the Random Effects Model (REM) was selected as the best estimation model. The results indicate that both partially and simultaneously, inflation and FDI do not have a significant effect on Indonesia's trade balance. Trade balance resilience is predominantly driven by long-term structural factors like export competitiveness and global commodity price volatility. From an Islamic economic perspective, these findings are validated by the principles of tawazun and maslahah ammah. It reflects that international trade cooperation (al-Tijarah al-Kharijiyyah) remains solid as it is driven by fulfilling the community's real needs and the spirit of mutual assistance (ta'awun) based on mutual consent ('an taradin), transcending monetary distortions.