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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Rofiq Nur Rizal
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Analisis Konvergensi Ekonomi Daerah Berbasis Statistik Resmi pada Era Uncertainty Economy Azka Annisa Ramadhani; Decapryo Rivian Belo; Hasna Fathin Nur Diniyah; Muhamad Naufal Mazidan; Victor Ardiansyah Maruli Sitorus; Rofiq Nur Rizal
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2658

Abstract

Regional economic disparities remain a major development chalenge in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Province. This study examines economic convergence and identifies the determinants of district/city GDP per capita growth during the pre- pandemic, pandemic and post-pandemic COVID-19. Using official statistical data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the study analyzes panel data from 22 districts/cities during the 2019–2023 period through panel data regression. The explanatory variables include initial GDP per capita, Gini ratio, internet access, open unemployment rate (TPT), and human development index (HDI). The finding reveal significant regional heterogeneity and confirm the presence of economic convergence, as shown by the negative and significant coeficient of initial GDP per capita. HDI positively affects economic growth, whereas Gini ratio and internet access show significant negative effect; while TPT is insignificant. These result highlight the need to strengthen human capital, expand equitable digital infrastructure, and reduce inequality to accelerate regional economic convergence in NTT.
Peran Sektor Manufaktur terhadap Neraca Perdagangan di ASEAN-5 Nela Nur ’Azizah; Ingrid Vanessa Martina Samosir; Andhin Intannegara; Agung Ismial; Muhammad Syarif Lutfi; Rofiq Nur Rizal
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2859

Abstract

International trade is an important indicator of economic performance, particularly through the trade balance. This study analyzes the relationship of Manufacturing Value Added (MVA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), return exchange rate, and inflation with the trade balance in goods of ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines) during 2015–2024. The study uses secondary panel data from the World Bank. Estimation was conducted using a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) with Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) weighting. The results show that all variables are jointly significantly associated with the trade balance. Partially, MVA is positively and significantly associated, return exchange rate is negatively and significantly associated, inflation is positively and significantly associated, while FDI is negatively but not significantly associated. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening the manufacturing sector and domestic supply chains to support trade performance in ASEAN-5.
Co-Authors Agung Ismial Andhin Intannegara Azka Annisa Ramadhani Decapryo Rivian Belo Hasna Fathin Nur Diniyah Ingrid Vanessa Martina Samosir Muhamad Naufal Mazidan Muhammad Syarif Lutfi Nela Nur ’Azizah Victor Ardiansyah Maruli Sitorus