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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Rizky Arby Maulana
Program Studi Statistika, Politeknik Statistika STIS
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Respons Dinamis Harga Bitcoin, Harga Emas, dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan terhadap Guncangan Makroekonomi Global dan Domestik Lydia Aushaf Ozora Siregar; Sarah Nurfajar; Rifki Siboro; Rizky Arby Maulana; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2673

Abstract

This study examines the responses of Bitcoin, gold, and the Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IDX Composite/IHSG) to U.S. monetary policy, China's economic conditions, global market volatility, and domestic macroeconomic factors using monthly data from 2014–2025 and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The variables include the Federal Funds Effective Rate, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (China PMI), the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the IDR/USD exchange rate, and the BI Rate. The results reveal the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships across all models. In the short run, only gold prices exhibit a significant adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium, whereas Bitcoin and the IDX Composite do not. The impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) analyses indicate that Bitcoin is primarily driven by internal shocks, gold is more sensitive to global factors, showing patterns consistent with safe-haven characteristics, while the IDX Composite is influenced relatively evenly by both global and domestic factors. These findings highlight the differing sensitivities of the three assets to global shocks.
Co-Authors Fitri Kartiasih Lydia Aushaf Ozora Siregar Rifki Siboro Sarah Nurfajar