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Fitri Kartiasih
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Mengungkap Keterkaitan Antarsektor dan Kebocoran Ekonomi di Indonesia: Bukti dari Analisis Input–Output Dustin Raka Widiananta Aslam; Chew Myky Sylvyana; Iben Sebastian; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2639

Abstract

Export growth is a cornerstone of Indonesia's economy, yet its benefits remain suboptimal due to a high reliance on imported inputs, which triggers economic leakage. This study examines the degree of import dependence and potential economic leakage across Indonesian economic sectors. Employing an Input-Output (I-O) analysis, this research utilizes the 2016 and 2020 I-O Tables from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) to decompose domestic and imported transactions. The analyzed indicators include the Import Content of Exports (ICoE), Total Backward Linkage (TBL), and Economic Leakage. Findings reveal that most sectors in 2020 recorded an ICoE greater than 1, indicating that imported inputs exceeded export values. The Construction sector exhibited the highest ICoE, while Education and Health Services experienced drastic surges. Furthermore, a positive correlation exists between TBL and Economic Leakage. In conclusion, Indonesia's export production relies heavily on imported inputs, causing significant economic leakage. Strategic import substitution policies are imperative to strengthen the national economic structure.
Hilirisasi Nikel dan Kontribusinya terhadap Nilai Tambah dan Struktur Perekonomian Nasional Bunga Musva Cotva; Nur Faqih Ihsan; Sun Asi Gabriella Sinaga; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2644

Abstract

Indonesia has abundant nickel reserves and significant potential to promote economic growth through downstreaming strategies. However, studies analyzing the impacts of nickel downstreaming investment injections on intersectoral output, household income, and value added using the Input-Output approach remain relatively limited. This study aims to analyze the linkages of nickel downstreaming with intersectoral output, household income, and value added in Indonesia. The analysis employs an Input-Output model with an investment injection of IDR 153.2 trillion into the metal, iron, and steel processing industry as a representation of nickel downstreaming activities, using 50%, 100%, and 150% injection scenarios. The results show that the largest impacts on output and value added occur in the non-metallic, iron, and steel processing industry, while the largest household income impact occurs in the same sector, followed by wholesale and retail trade and mining and quarrying. Increasing the injection scenario only changes the magnitude of impacts without altering the intersectoral ranking. Expanding the impacts of nickel downstreaming requires strengthening local inputs, high-value-added downstream industries, technology transfer, and human resource development.
Catalyst for Growth: Analisis Multiplier Effect Investasi IKN Terhadap Perekonomian Kalimantan Timur I Kadek Surya Wisesa Adnyana; Selly Dian Fadila; Dara Sakina; Muhammad Omar Zudan Fahrizal; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2645

Abstract

The Nusantara Capital City (IKN) in East Kalimantan is a national strategic project expected to drive economic growth. This study analyzes the impact of the initial investment in the IKN’s development on the economy of East Kalimantan using Input–Output (I–O) analysis. The 2024 I–O table was updated using the RAS method and used to simulate an investment of Rp56.2 trillion under two scenarios. The results show that construction and manufacturing are key sectors, while mining and quarrying which contribute 39.26% to the regional gross domestic product (GRDP) are not considered key sectors. IKN investment has a positive impact on output, net domestic product (NDP), household income, and employment. Simulation 1 yields higher output and employment. Simulation 2 yields higher household income with relatively similar NTB and more widespread benefits. These findings highlight the importance of investment allocation and strengthening broadly interconnected sectors to support East Kalimantan’s economic diversification.
Simulasi Dampak Peningkatan Anggaran Pendidikan terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 2025 Raihan Sofia; Anak Agung Istri Anggita Kesumawijaya; Muhammad Rafa Arianto; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2647

Abstract

Education is a fundamental investment for a country’s progress. The Indonesian government has increased the education budget in the 2025 Draft State Budget to drive post-pandemic economic recovery and growth. This research aims to analyze the linkages between the education sector and other sectors, and simulates changes in output, value added, household income, and employment under an education budget increase scenario. The study utilizes the 2024 Input-Output (I-O) table, with the education budget increase of IDR 59.24 trillion treated as a final demand injection into the Education Services sector. Based on IDK and IDP values, the education sector is in the lagging category. However, the injection generated an additional national output of IDR 86.20 trillion and an additional education sector output of IDR 60.04 trillion. Besides output, the injection also increased value added, household income, and employment in both the education sector and other sectors.
Prediksi Harga Emas di Pasar Jakarta Menggunakan ARIMAX dengan Google Trends dan Stabilitas Moneter Dinda Putri Nabila; Lola Monica; Moh. Fajril Adiko; Ibrahim Bazra Ritonga; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2652

Abstract

Gold has long been regarded as an important safe-haven asset; however, its price movements in the domestic market have become increasingly complex, particularly in the post-COVID-19 period. This study aims to identify the optimal combination of exogenous variables in the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model for forecasting gold prices in the Jakarta market. The exogenous variables examined include inflation, the Bank Indonesia policy interest rate, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the Google Trends search index for the keyword “gold price”. The analysis uses monthly data from 2022 to 2025, comprising a total of 46 observations. The results indicate that ARIMA(0,2,2) is the best baseline model. Furthermore, among the various combinations of exogenous variables, only Google Trends is statistically significant and improves forecasting accuracy, whereas monetary stability indicators do not make a consistent contribution. These findings suggest that Google Trends, as a proxy for search attention, provides additional information that is relevant to modeling and forecasting gold prices in the Jakarta market.
Embodied Emissions Gas Rumah Kaca dalam Perekonomian Indonesia Anis Latifah; Muhammad Gilang Permadi; Salwa Fauza Nafisa; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2659

Abstract

Climate change is a global challenge and a key focus of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13. Indonesia aims to achieve Net Zero Emissions by 2060 or sooner; however, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to increase. Existing policies primarily focus on direct emissions while overlooking indirect emissions and embodied emissions associated with trade. This study estimates the embodied emissions of each economic sector, examines embodied emissions in trade, and identifies the major emission-contributing sectors using Indonesia's 2020 input–output table and 2022 greenhouse gas emissions data published by Statistics Indonesia. The results indicate that Indonesia's economic structure remains highly dependent on emission-intensive sectors, particularly Manufacturing and Electricity and Gas Supply, both directly and indirectly. Most emissions are generated to satisfy domestic consumption, while the country's emission balance shows a surplus, reflecting the high carbon footprint of export-oriented production. These findings highlight the need for cross-sectoral decarbonisation and more sustainable consumption patterns to support Indonesia's Net Zero Emissions target.
Volatility Spillover antara Harga Minyak Mentah Brent dan Minyak Kedelai Andi Muthiah Rahim; Ilyas Ramadhan; Muhamad Fadhlan Hendri; Efriyendi Efriyendi; Aura Mustika Febrina; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2672

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic interconnectedness and risk spillovers between the Brent crude oil and soybean oil markets over the 2007–2024 period using 4,573 daily observations. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model is employed to estimate time-varying correlations between the two markets. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirms that the return series of both commodities are stationary at the level. The presence of volatility clustering and heteroskedasticity justifies the application of the GARCH framework, while the analysis identifies a significant leverage effect in the Brent crude oil market, where negative shocks generate greater volatility than positive shocks. Dynamic correlations rise sharply during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict, indicating strong risk contagion and reduced portfolio diversification benefits during periods of market stress. These findings highlight the importance of dynamic hedging strategies and coordinated energy– food policies to enhance market stability and global food security.
Respons Dinamis Harga Bitcoin, Harga Emas, dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan terhadap Guncangan Makroekonomi Global dan Domestik Lydia Aushaf Ozora Siregar; Sarah Nurfajar; Rifki Siboro; Rizky Arby Maulana; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2673

Abstract

This study examines the responses of Bitcoin, gold, and the Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IDX Composite/IHSG) to U.S. monetary policy, China's economic conditions, global market volatility, and domestic macroeconomic factors using monthly data from 2014–2025 and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The variables include the Federal Funds Effective Rate, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (China PMI), the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the IDR/USD exchange rate, and the BI Rate. The results reveal the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships across all models. In the short run, only gold prices exhibit a significant adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium, whereas Bitcoin and the IDX Composite do not. The impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) analyses indicate that Bitcoin is primarily driven by internal shocks, gold is more sensitive to global factors, showing patterns consistent with safe-haven characteristics, while the IDX Composite is influenced relatively evenly by both global and domestic factors. These findings highlight the differing sensitivities of the three assets to global shocks.
Dampak Kebijakan Efisiensi Anggaran dan Realokasi Belanja Sosial terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia Adinda Safira Santoso Ayuningrum; Ahmad Febrian Muharom; Muhammad Afif Wirdiyan Zaldi; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2675

Abstract

Limited fiscal space has prompted the Indonesian government to implement budget efficiency measures, including reductions in the Ministry of Public Works' infrastructure budget, to finance the Free Nutritious Meals (FNM) Program. This study simulates the impacts of this policy on output, employment, and household income using the 2024 Indonesian Input–Output Table. Two policy scenarios are examined: budget efficiency in the construction sector and budget efficiency combined with expenditure reallocation through the FNM Program to the accommodation and food service sector. The results indicate that cuts in construction spending reduce economy-wide economic activity, particularly in the transportation, trade, and service sectors. In contrast, expenditure reallocation through the FNM Program increases employment and household income, especially in labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. These findings suggest that social spending targeted at sectors with high multiplier effects can offset the adverse impacts of reduced capital expenditure while supporting inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
Determinan Perilaku Hemat Energi Listrik Mahasiswa Politeknik Statistika STIS Rezky Aditya Ar’razak; I Komang Andhika Putra; Sophie Jasmine Sinaga; Yuliana Yuliana; Zahra Tamara Allyana; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2703

Abstract

Rising electricity consumption in Indonesia highlights the importance of energy-saving behavior, particularly among university students who frequently use electronic devices. This study aims to analyze the relationship between knowledge, attitudes, and social norms regarding the electricity-saving behavior of students at the Politeknik Statistika STIS. A quantitative approach with a cross-sectional design was employed, involving 319 respondents selected through stratified random sampling. Data were analyzed using binary logistic regression. The results indicate that knowledge, attitudes, and social norms are simultaneously and significantly associated with electricity-saving behavior. Individually, however, only attitudes and social norms exert a significant influence, whereas knowledge does not. The regression model achieved a classification accuracy of 81.5%. These findings suggest that strengthening attitudes and social norms is crucial for fostering electricity-saving behavior among students.
Co-Authors Adinda Safira Santoso Ayuningrum Ahmad Febrian Muharom Anak Agung Istri Anggita Kesumawijaya Andi Muthiah Rahim Anis Latifah Aura Mustika Febrina Bunga Musva Cotva Chew Myky Sylvyana Dara Sakina Dinda Putri Nabila Dustin Raka Widiananta Aslam Efriyendi Efriyendi I Kadek Surya Wisesa Adnyana I Komang Andhika Putra Iben Sebastian Ibrahim Bazra Ritonga Ilyas Ramadhan Lola Monica Lydia Aushaf Ozora Siregar Moh. Fajril Adiko Muhamad Fadhlan Hendri Muhammad Afif Wirdiyan Zaldi Muhammad Gilang Permadi Muhammad Omar Zudan Fahrizal Muhammad Rafa Arianto Nur Faqih Ihsan Raihan Sofia Rezky Aditya Ar’razak Rifki Siboro Rizky Arby Maulana Salwa Fauza Nafisa Sarah Nurfajar Selly Dian Fadila Sophie Jasmine Sinaga Sun Asi Gabriella Sinaga Yuliana Yuliana Zahra Tamara Allyana