<![CDATA[Global armed conflicts show variations in intensity influenced by the type of issue incompatibility. This study aims to analyze the influence of territorial, ideological, and combined incompatibilities on the probability of high-intensity conflict escalation, as well as its implications for conflict mitigation strategies. Global conflict dyadic data were analyzed using a multilevel logistic regression model with controls for time, region, and conflict type. The results show that ideology-based conflicts have a lower probability of reaching high intensity than territorial conflicts (OR ≈ 0.51, p < 0.05), while conflicts with a combination of ideology and territory tend to be at greater risk of high escalation (AM effect ≈ +26.6 points), although the effect is not yet statistically significant. Temporal analysis shows a downward trend in conflict intensity over time, especially in the post-Cold War period, while regional effects and conflict types show significant variation. These findings fill a gap in the literature on the dual interaction of ideological and territorial claims, showing that the highest escalation of violence occurs when symbolic and material dimensions are intertwined. In conclusion, conflict escalation is more influenced by a combination of issues and structural characteristics of conflict than by ideology alone. The novelty of this research lies in the identification of the strengthening effect of dual incompatibility and the downward trend in conflict intensity after the Cold War, which emphasizes the importance of a relational and temporal context-based mitigation approach in global conflict management.]]>
