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All Journal Jurnal Teknik Informatika C.I.T. Medicom
Sihotang, Hengki Tamando
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Computer Science & IT

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A Probabilistic Decision Model for AI-Driven Optimization in Highly Complex Stochastic Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) Systems Sihotang, Hengki Tamando; Simbolon, Roma Sinta
Jurnal Teknik Informatika C.I.T Medicom Vol 17 No 1 (2025): March: Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

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Abstract

Highly complex systems present significant challenges for optimization, particularly when operating under uncertainty, high dimensionality, and dynamic environmental conditions. This study proposes a probabilistic decision model designed to enhance AI-driven optimization by integrating uncertainty quantification, adaptive decision mechanisms, and robust probabilistic reasoning. The methodology combines probabilistic modeling with machine learning techniques and is evaluated through a series of controlled experimental scenarios that simulate real-world complexity and noise. The results indicate substantial improvements in decision accuracy, solution stability, and robustness compared to traditional deterministic and heuristic-based optimization methods. The model consistently maintains high performance despite uncertain inputs and fluctuating system parameters, demonstrating its reliability in environments where conventional approaches tend to degrade. Theoretical analysis further validates the model’s feasibility and guarantees performance consistency under uncertainty. Overall, this research contributes a scalable and resilient decision-making framework capable of addressing the limitations of existing optimization models, offering significant potential for broad application in AI-driven complex systems.
Development of a Robust–Stochastic Optimization Framework for Enhancing Stability and Efficiency in Transportation Models Sihotang, Hengki Tamando; Simbolon, Roma Sinta
Jurnal Teknik Informatika C.I.T Medicom Vol 17 No 2 (2025): May: Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

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This study develops a unified robust stochastic optimization framework designed to enhance the stability, efficiency, and reliability of transportation models operating under significant uncertainty. Traditional deterministic, robust-only, and stochastic-only approaches each face limitations deterministic models fail under variability, robust models tend to be overly conservative, and stochastic models struggle under extreme disruptions. To address these gaps, the proposed framework integrates worst-case uncertainty sets with probabilistic scenario modeling, enabling decisions that remain feasible under extreme conditions while maintaining optimal performance during typical operations. The methodology includes comprehensive uncertainty modeling of travel time fluctuations, demand variability, cost changes, and network disruptions; a hybrid mathematical formulation combining robust constraints with stochastic scenarios; and an efficient algorithmic structure employing enhanced decomposition techniques and scenario filtering to reduce computational complexity. Experimental results using benchmark and real-world transportation datasets show significant improvements in solution stability, travel time reliability, cost efficiency, and network resilience compared with conventional models. The hybrid framework reduces over-conservatism, lowers operational cost by up to 25%, and increases robustness under high-variability conditions, demonstrating superior performance in both normal and disrupted environments. The study advances optimization theory by offering a scalable and computationally tractable integration of two major uncertainty-handling paradigms, while contributing to transportation modeling through a practical tool capable of supporting reliable routing, scheduling, and logistics planning. Overall, this research provides a robust and adaptive optimization strategy that strengthens decision-making under uncertainty and improves the resilience of modern transportation systems.
A Fundamental Multilevel Optimization Decision Model for Complex Systems Based on an AI-Optimization Fusion Framework Sihotang, Hengki Tamando; Simbolon, Roma Sinta
Jurnal Teknik Informatika C.I.T Medicom Vol 17 No 3 (2025): July: Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

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Abstract

Complex systems in modern domains such as transportation, energy, supply chains, and autonomous multi-agent networks require decision-making frameworks capable of handling hierarchical structures, dynamic environments, and high levels of uncertainty. Traditional multilevel optimization models offer a structured approach but often struggle with computational complexity, nonlinear interactions, and incomplete information. This research proposes a fundamental multilevel optimization decision model based on an AI-Optimization Fusion Framework designed to overcome these limitations. The model integrates bilevel and trilevel hierarchical structures with artificial intelligence learning paradigms, including supervised learning, deep learning, and reinforcement learning, to form a unified architecture that adapts to evolving system behaviors. A hybrid algorithmic formulation is developed to merge optimization procedures with learning-based approximations, enabling faster convergence, improved robustness, and enhanced decision quality. The experimental and simulation results demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms traditional optimization approaches in accuracy, computational efficiency, scalability, and resilience under uncertainty. The model’s hierarchical decision mechanisms allow for dynamic coordination across decision levels, while AI-driven components provide predictive and adaptive capabilities that mitigate complexity in high-dimensional environments. The research contributes a novel integrated architecture, theoretical enhancements in multilevel decision modeling, and algorithmic innovations for hybrid AI–optimization systems. Limitations related to data availability, computational resources, and structural assumptions are acknowledged, offering directions for future exploration. Overall, this study establishes a new foundation for intelligent, scalable, and robust decision-making in complex systems, positioning AI–optimization integration as a key enabler for next-generation autonomous and adaptive decision frameworks.
A Mathematical Framework for Integrating Neural Networks into Stochastic DEA Models to Reduce Variance and Improve Prediction Stability Sihotang, Hengki Tamando; Simbolon, Roma Sinta
Jurnal Teknik Informatika C.I.T Medicom Vol 17 No 4 (2025): September: Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

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This study proposes a novel mathematical framework that integrates neural networks into Stochastic Data Envelopment Analysis (SDEA) to reduce variance and enhance the stability of efficiency prediction under uncertainty. Traditional DEA models rely on linear or piecewise-linear frontiers and are highly sensitive to noise, resulting in unstable efficiency scores and unreliable rankings. The proposed hybrid framework addresses these limitations by combining stochastic frontier modeling, noise-distribution assumptions, and neural network function approximation to construct a smooth, flexible, and noise-resilient efficiency frontier. Neural components capture nonlinear relationships among inputs and outputs, while regularization and bootstrapping techniques stabilize estimation and mitigate variance inflation. Empirical experiments demonstrate that the integrated model outperforms classical DEA, stochastic DEA, and bootstrap-corrected DEA in terms of variance reduction, robustness to noise, and stability across repeated sampling. Efficiency scores exhibit narrower confidence intervals, more consistent DMU rankings, and improved frontier curvature representation. Sensitivity analyses further show that the model remains robust under different noise structures and hyperparameter settings. The findings highlight the potential of combining machine learning with stochastic optimization to advance the methodological foundation of DEA. By enhancing frontier flexibility and reducing noise-induced bias, the proposed framework provides a more reliable tool for efficiency evaluation in complex and uncertain production environments. Future work should focus on enhancing interpretability, reducing computational cost, and relaxing distributional assumptions to further extend the applicability of this hybrid approach.
Co-Authors Hasugian, Penda Sudarto Hutahaean, Harvei Desmon Laia, Endang Mistaorina Lumbantoruan, Harapan Rahayu, Suciana Simbolon, Roma Sinta Widya wati Yuana, Eka Ramari