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All Journal Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Buletin GAW Bariri ( BGB) Jurnal Widya Climago
Pattipeilohy, Wendel Jan
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Astronomy Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Education Environmental Science Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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ANALISIS PENGARUH MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) TERHADAP ANOMALI CURAH HUJAN DI WILAYAH NGURAH RAI Pattipeilohy, Wendel Jan; B, Femmy Marsitha; Asri, Devina Putri
Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Vol 6 No 2 (2019): Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Publisher : Unit Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (778.2 KB) | DOI: 10.36754/jmkg.v6i2.123

Abstract

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) merupakan suatu gelombang atau osilasi non seasonal yang terjadi di lapisan troposfer yang bergerak dari barat ke timur dengan periode osilasi kurang lebih 30-60 hari. Fenomena ini sangat berdampak terhadap kondisi anomali curah hujan pada suatu wilayah yang dilaluinya. Dalam penelitian ini delapan fase MJO dikelompokan menjadi 4 bagian sesuai dengan pergerakannya yaitu fase 1 dan 8 (Western and Africa), fase 2 dan 3 (Indian Ocean), fase 4 dan 5 (Maritime Continent),  fase 6 dan 7 (Western Pacific). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu data curah hujan periode 1996-2015 dan data MJO periode yang sama. Lokasi penelitian yaitu wilayah Ngurah Rai. Data curah hujan dihitung anomalinya lalu dipisahkan antara anomali positif dan negatif  lalu disandingkan dengan fase MJO aktif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis porsentase kelompok fase MJO mana yang mendominasi anomali curah hujan pada saat anomali positif maupun negatif. Hasil kajian menunjukan persentase kejadian anomali curah hujan positif dominan terjadi saat fase MJO berada di Maritime Continent  sebesar 36%. Kemudian persentase kejadian anomali curah hujan negatif dominan terjadi saat MJO berada pada fase Indian Ocean dengan porsentasi sebesar 33%.
VERIFIKASI PRAKIRAAN CURAH HUJAN BULANAN MENGGUNAKAN ECMWF DAN ARIMA DI PAPUA BARAT Pattipeilohy, Wendel Jan; Amalia, Anisafitri; Rakhim, Rosita
Jurnal Widya Climago Vol 3 No 2 (2021): Pengembangan Kompetensi dan Penguatan Informasi Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geof
Publisher : Pusdiklat BMKG

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Abstract

The South Manokwari climatology station provides monthly rainfall forecast information in the form of deterministic and probabilistic rainfall distribution forecast information maps. Assessing the quality of forecast is verified the rainfall forecast information service can meet the standards and needs for the community. This research aims to compare the results of monthly rainfall forecast between ECMWF model and ARIMA statistical model with rainfall observation results to determine the performance of forecast results closer to observation. The data used in this research are observation rainfall data from 15 rain posts and 5 BMKG stations in West Papua and ECMWF reanalysis data. Observation data used as baseline is monthly rainfall data in 2019. The method used is ARIMA method as forecast method, then contingency table to calculate forecast suitability, PC to see accuracy and HSS for excellence. Furthermore, the results used rainfall criteria/classes consisting of 9 classes called quantitative rainfall forecasts and criteria consisting of 4 classes called qualitative rainfall forecasts. The results of monthly rainfall forecast in West Papua show that ECMWF data tends to overestimate the observation compared to ARIMA. PCH ARIMA quantitatively and qualitatively, the frequency of accuracy of forecasts to the appropriate observations is more than PCH ECMWF. PC value from PCH ARIMA is qualitatively more accurate and HSS value has advantages over PCH ECMWF. The performance of ECMWF and ARIMA in each rain post qualitatively has better accuracy, especially in southern part of West Papua. Meanwhile, quantitatively shows worse results almost all rain posts.
Analisis Analisis Perubahan Pola Musim dan Distribusi Frekuensi Curah Hujan di Sentani Pattipeilohy, Wendel Jan; Barung, Femmy Marsitha; Ronsumbre, Ezri Yustina
Buletin GAW Bariri (BGB) Vol 5 No 1 (2024): BULETIN GAW BARIRI
Publisher : Stasiun Pemantau Atmosfer Global Lore Lindu Bariri - Palu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31172/bgb.v5i1.92

Abstract

One important aspect in detecting climate change is by analyzing changes in meteorological variables such as rainfall. This research was conducted to analyze climate change in a simple way in Sentani using rainfall data from the period 1991 – 2020. The method used is qualitative analysis related to the shift in the onset of the rainy season and dry season in period 1 (1991 – 2005) and period 2 (2006 – 2020) compared to their climatological norms. Then, the changes in frequency distribution in each period were compared, and the Mann Whitney statistical test was conducted to test the significance of the average rainfall in each period. Additionally, the Mann Kendall test was used to detect any changes in trends. The results show a shift in the seasonal pattern from the normal, where the onset of the dry season tends to come earlier, and the onset of the rainy season comes later than the normal conditions. There is an increase in rainfall intensity in period 2, where based on the frequency distribution, rainfall in period 1 had a maximum interval of 250 – 300 mm/ten days, while in period 2, the maximum value of the rainfall interval reached 400 – 450 mm/ten days. The Mann Whitney and Mann Kendall statistical tests confirm a significant difference in the average rainfall between the two periods and a significant increase in rainfall over the past 30 years.
Co-Authors Amalia, Anisafitri Asri, Devina Putri B, Femmy Marsitha Barung, Femmy Marsitha rakhim, rosita Ronsumbre, Ezri Yustina