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Acha, Chigozie Kelechi
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Empirical Assessment of Selected Financial Indicators and Nigeria Gross Domestic Product Acha, Chigozie Kelechi; Umezurike, Chinaegbomkpa
Quantitative Economics Research Vol 1, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

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Abstract

This study undertook an overview of the financial sector and considered the contributions of some selected financial indicators to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria. Data were obtained from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the period, 1990-2016. The variables considered include: Lending rate (LR), Real Interest rate (RIR), Money Supply (M2), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), Inflation rate (IR). Multiple regression analysis method was used to analyze the data. From the analysis, it is observed that credit to private sector (CPS) has a positive relationship with the GDP whereas the rest had negative relationship with the GDP. Further analysis using analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that one of the factors (CPS) is significant. From the result obtained, it is recommended that the private sector should be given more access to credit. This will help in improving the economy since it has shown to have a positive relationship with the GDP.Keywords: Inflation; Lending rate; Money supply; Gross Domestic ProductJEL Codes: E43, E60, O40
Application of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) Bound Test on Selected Macroeconomic Variables Chinenye, Amalahu Christian; Acha, Chigozie Kelechi
Quantitative Economics Research Vol 1, No 2 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

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Abstract

This study examined the application of Auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound test on some selected macroeconomic variables spanning from 1981-2017 obtained from the statistical Bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The data were analyzed using the E-views 9.0 software. F-statistic of 5.9167 was found to be higher than the critical value of 3.79 in the Lower Bound I(0) and 4.85 in the Upper bound I(1)  at the 5 % level, thus null hypothesis was rejected. ARDL (1, 2, 0) was found to be the best fit model for showing a long-run and short-run relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exchange rate, and Interest rate. There is a long-run relationship among GDP, Exchange rate, and Interest rate which means that the variables under study are co-integrated. Also, a unidirectional relationship running from exchange rate to GDP exist. The study recommends the use of supportive fiscal and monetary policies that will tighten the local currency market and provide a set of incentives aimed at removing anti-export bias barriers so as to promote exports and boost GDP, particularly non-oil exports and discourage import of consumer goods to stabilize the exchange rate. Keywords: ARDL Bound test; Gross Domestic Product; Exchange rate; Macroeconomic Variables; Interest rate.JEL Codes: E06; O2; O4
Co-Authors Chinenye, Amalahu Christian Umezurike, Chinaegbomkpa