Quantitative Economics Research
Vol 1, No 2 (2018)

Application of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) Bound Test on Selected Macroeconomic Variables

Chinenye, Amalahu Christian (Unknown)
Acha, Chigozie Kelechi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Nov 2018

Abstract

This study examined the application of Auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound test on some selected macroeconomic variables spanning from 1981-2017 obtained from the statistical Bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The data were analyzed using the E-views 9.0 software. F-statistic of 5.9167 was found to be higher than the critical value of 3.79 in the Lower Bound I(0) and 4.85 in the Upper bound I(1)  at the 5 % level, thus null hypothesis was rejected. ARDL (1, 2, 0) was found to be the best fit model for showing a long-run and short-run relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exchange rate, and Interest rate. There is a long-run relationship among GDP, Exchange rate, and Interest rate which means that the variables under study are co-integrated. Also, a unidirectional relationship running from exchange rate to GDP exist. The study recommends the use of supportive fiscal and monetary policies that will tighten the local currency market and provide a set of incentives aimed at removing anti-export bias barriers so as to promote exports and boost GDP, particularly non-oil exports and discourage import of consumer goods to stabilize the exchange rate. Keywords: ARDL Bound test; Gross Domestic Product; Exchange rate; Macroeconomic Variables; Interest rate.JEL Codes: E06; O2; O4

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Journal Info

Abbrev

qer

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Quantitative Economics Research is an International Journal publishes original and high quality applied research orientation in the field of economics that employ theoretical, empirical, and experimental methods. This journal also encourages review articles in particular innovative and fundamental ...