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Zin, Win Win
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Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Engineering

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Assessment of Future Climate Change Projections Using Multiple Global Climate Models Oo, Han Thi; Zin, Win Win; Thin Kyi, Cho Cho
Civil Engineering Journal Vol 5, No 10 (2019): October
Publisher : Salehan Institute of Higher Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/cej-2019-03091401

Abstract

Nowadays, the hydrological cycle which alters river discharge and water availability is affected by climate change. Therefore, the understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins. The main purpose of this study is to assess the projections of future climate across the Upper Ayeyarwady river basin for its sustainable development and management of water sector for this area. Global Ten climate Models available from CMIP5 represented by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report were bias corrected using linear scaling method to generate the model error. Among the GCMs, a suitable climate model for each station is selected based on the results of performance indicators (R2 and RMSE). Future climate data are projected based on the selected suitable climate models by using future climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. According to this study, future projection indicates to increase in precipitation amounts in the rainy and winter season and diminishes in summer season under all future scenarios. Based on the seasonal temperature changes analysis for all stations,  the future temperature are  predicted to steadily increase with higher rates during summer than the other two seasons and it can also be concluded that the monthly minimum temperature rise is a bit larger than the maximum temperature rise in all seasons.
Analysis of trends and variability in frequency and intensity indices of precipitation over Myanmar during 1985-2020 Khaing, Min; Zin, Win Win; San, Zin Mar Lar Tin; Thiha, Soe; Shrestha, Manish
Innovation in Engineering Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): Regular Issue
Publisher : Researcher and Lecturer Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58712/ie.v2i1.33

Abstract

In this study, an analysis of long-term extreme precipitation indices was conducted using daily observation data from 38 stations in Myanmar spanning from 1985 to 2020. Three frequency indices and six intensity indices of precipitation were analyzed using RClimDex software. The Mann-Kendall test, along with Sen’s slope method, was employed to determine the trends and magnitude of extreme indices. The spatial distribution patterns varied across different physiographic regions, with 63% to 76% of the stations displaying increasing trends in various indices. The consecutive dry days showed increasing trends in the hilly regions, whereas the consecutive wet days exhibited decreasing trends in those areas. For the maximum 1-day precipitation, 45% of stations displayed increasing trends, with 5% of those being statistically significant. The Western Hilly Region exhibited rising trends in extremely wet days, whereas other regions have experienced mixed trends. These findings highlight the need for adaptive water resources engineering and management to address the localized changes of precipitation trends that affect floods and droughts in Myanmar.
Co-Authors Khaing, Min Oo, Han Thi San, Zin Mar Lar Tin Shrestha, Manish Thiha, Soe Thin Kyi, Cho Cho