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San, Zin Mar Lar Tin
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Engineering

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Analysis of trends and variability in frequency and intensity indices of precipitation over Myanmar during 1985-2020 Khaing, Min; Zin, Win Win; San, Zin Mar Lar Tin; Thiha, Soe; Shrestha, Manish
Innovation in Engineering Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): Regular Issue
Publisher : Researcher and Lecturer Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58712/ie.v2i1.33

Abstract

In this study, an analysis of long-term extreme precipitation indices was conducted using daily observation data from 38 stations in Myanmar spanning from 1985 to 2020. Three frequency indices and six intensity indices of precipitation were analyzed using RClimDex software. The Mann-Kendall test, along with Sen’s slope method, was employed to determine the trends and magnitude of extreme indices. The spatial distribution patterns varied across different physiographic regions, with 63% to 76% of the stations displaying increasing trends in various indices. The consecutive dry days showed increasing trends in the hilly regions, whereas the consecutive wet days exhibited decreasing trends in those areas. For the maximum 1-day precipitation, 45% of stations displayed increasing trends, with 5% of those being statistically significant. The Western Hilly Region exhibited rising trends in extremely wet days, whereas other regions have experienced mixed trends. These findings highlight the need for adaptive water resources engineering and management to address the localized changes of precipitation trends that affect floods and droughts in Myanmar.
Inflow generation using Thomas- Fiering model for Thaphanseik Reservoir in Myanmar Latt, Yin Nwe; Zin , Win Win; San, Zin Mar Lar Tin
Innovation in Engineering Vol. 1 No. 2 (2024): Regular Issue
Publisher : Researcher and Lecturer Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58712/ie.v1i2.14

Abstract

Thomas-Fiering (T-F) model was applied for generating synthetic streamflow for the Thaphanseik reservoir. The Thomas-Fiering model accommodated the non-stationarity of seasonal data. Time series of streamflow are crucial for the planning, design, and management of various water resource systems. In this study, the model was tested using historical data spanning 39 years (from 1985 to 2023). The model’s performance was evaluated by using statistical measurements such as Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Additionally, this model was utilized to generate synthetic streamflow data for the years 2024 to 2100. The logarithmic transformation method was used in order to avoid the negative flows in the synthetic data.  In this study, synthesis flow data were generated using different random sequences. The mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient of different synthetic series were calculated. The calibration process was performed for the periods 1985 to 2016 and validation process was performed for the years 2017 to 2023. Based on R2 value, most suitable synthetic series were chosen. The generated data showed a high goodness of fit, with R² and NSE values. An analysis of the historical and synthetic discharge statistics revealed that the model successfully captured the features of the historical data and integrated them into the generated sequences.
Co-Authors Khaing, Min Latt, Yin Nwe Shrestha, Manish Thiha, Soe Zin , Win Win Zin, Win Win