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All Journal MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Desa (JPMD) Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
UMMAH, HIDAYATUL
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Environmental Science Mathematics Nursing Social Sciences

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METODE HOLT DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK PERAMALAN PRODUKSI DAGING AYAM KAMPUNG Intahaya, Ari; Salamah, Nur; Ummah, Hidayatul; Alfiani, Faradillah Siska; Fadhlia, Zahrotul Wardah; Isroil, Ahmad
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 13 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

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Abstract

This study aims to forecast the production of free-range chicken in East Java using the Holt-Double Exponential Smoothing method. By utilizing production data from the past several years, this method was chosen for its ability to capture existing trend patterns. The analysis results indicate that the method provides a high level of accuracy in forecasting. In general, the production of free-range chicken is expected to increase in most regions, although some areas may experience a decline. It is expected that farmers and local governments would use the study's conclusions as a foundation for their decision-making in order to preserve the stability and sustainability of free-range chicken production.
FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION WITH THE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD Salamah, Nur; Intahaya, Ari Maulidah; Alfiani, Faradillah Siska; Ummah, Hidayatul; Fadhlia, Zahrotul Wardah; Isro'il, Ahmad
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp141-152

Abstract

This study aims to forecast rice production in East Java using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method which can be used to view data with seasonal and trend patterns. The rice production data used in this study comes from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) which includes production data for the last five years. The results of the analysis show that this method provides a sufficient level of accuracy in forecasting and is also effective in providing estimates of rice production as well as assisting in strategic decision-making on the management of the agricultural sector and food security.
Pemberdayaan Ekonomi Keluarga di Era Digital: Pendekatan Ekspansi Pasar melalui Pemasaran Online Jam'an, Muhammad; Ummah, Hidayatul; Rohmawati, Siti Luthfi; Kartika, Ayu Dwi; Dewi, Rizka Amalia; Khusna, Aminatul; Pratama, Rizky Aditiya; Setiabudi, Agung; Nisa, Rofiatun
Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Desa (JPMD) Vol. 6 No. 3 (2025): JPMD
Publisher : LP3M IAIFA Kediri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58401/jpmd.v6i3.2645

Abstract

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are the backbone of Indonesia’s economy; however, many entrepreneurs still face obstacles in expanding their markets due to limited use of digital technology. A similar condition is found in Manyar Village, Sekaran Subdistrict, Lamongan Regency, where most MSME actors are housewives who rely on traditional marketing methods. This community service empowers family economies through digital marketing as a market expansion strategy. The objective is to improve digital literacy, branding capacity, and the ability to use e-commerce platforms among MSMEs so that they can expand their market access sustainably. The method employed was Participatory Action Research (PAR), which included problem identification, participatory planning, collective action, reflection, evaluation, and program sustainability monitoring. The program was carried out over one month, involving village officials, strategic partners (PT. Graha Rejeki Indonesia Kopi Giras and PT. Emer Inovasi Teknologi Cogan), and the active participation of local MSMEs. The results indicate that most participants successfully created marketplace accounts (Shopee and TikTok Shop), uploaded products with optimised descriptions and more professional photos, and began understanding the importance of branding and consistency in digital marketing. Moreover, the program increased the confidence of women entrepreneurs to market their products online while fostering the formation of a digital MSME community in Manyar Village. Therefore, this program enhanced digital skills, strengthened family economies, and established a village-based digital MSME ecosystem.
Co-Authors Agung Setiabudi, Agung Ahmad Isroil, Ahmad Alfiani, Faradillah Siska Dewi, Rizka Amalia Fadhlia, Zahrotul Wardah Intahaya, Ari Intahaya, Ari Maulidah Isro'il, Ahmad Jam'an, Muhammad Kartika, Ayu Dwi Khusna, Aminatul Nisa, Rofiatun Oksiana Jatiningsih Pratama, Rizky Aditiya Rohmawati, Siti Luthfi Salamah, Nur