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All Journal Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik
Yalisman, Febrian
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

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ANALISIS PRIORITAS MONITORING DAN EVALUASI PELAKSANAAN ANGGARAN KEMENTERIAN NEGARA/LEMBAGA BERDASARKAN MODEL ANALITYC HIERARCHY PROCESS Yalisman, Febrian
Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Vol 7, No 2: Semester Genap 2018/2019
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

ABSTRACT Budget implementation monitoring and evaluation activities should be carried out systematically and standardly focusing on certain areas or departments that carry high risks. This study aims to develop a model for prioritizing ministry and agency to be monitored and evaluated intensively by the Directorate of Budget Implementation in the ministry and agency budget implementation evaluation activities. The model was established using a multicriteria approach developed through library research and interviews with practitioners. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used as an analytical tool to help decision-makers solve problems that are multicriteria in nature. The results show that budget implementation performance is the most important criteria with the highest priority weight of 0.347, followed by national priority (0.330), previous evaluation results (0.197), and the complexity of ministry and agency (0.126). Keywords: monitoring and evaluation, budget implementation, multicriteria, AnalyticHierarchy Process.   ABSTRAK Aktivitas monitoring dan evaluasi pelaksanaan anggaran hendaknya dilakukan secara sistematis dan terstandardisasi dengan fokus pada area atau departemen tertentu yang memiliki risiko tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyusun model penentuan prioritas Kementerian Negara/Lembaga yang akan dimonitor dan dievaluasi secara internsif oleh Direktorat PA dalam kegiatan Evaluasi Pelaksanaan Anggaran K/L. Model disusun dengan pendekatan multikriteria yang dikembangkan melalui studi literatur dan wawancara dengan praktisi. Metode Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) digunakan sebagai alat analisis untuk membantu pengambil keputusan dalam menyelesaikan permasalahan yang bersifat multikriteria. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kriteria Kinerja Pelaksanaan Anggaran merupakan kriteria terpenting dengan bobot prioritas tertinggi dengan bobot prioritas sebesar 0,347, disusul kriteria Prioritas Nasional (0,330), kriteria Hasil Evaluasi Sebelumnya (0,197) dan kriteria Kompleksitas K/L (0,126).  Kata kunci: monitoring dan evaluasi, pelaksanaan anggaran, multikriteria, AnalyticHierarchy Process.
Risk Aversion and Budget Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence on Year-End Government Spending Spikes in Indonesia Yalisman, Febrian; Khoirunurrofik, Khoirunurrofik
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 10 No. 2 (2025): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v10i2.1227

Abstract

Research Originality — Existing empirical research on year-end government spending spikes seldom employs well-defined indicators of risk aversion behavior. Moreover, most analyses rely on limited samples or macro-level data, posing difficulties regarding generalizability. This study contributes originality by examining behavioral responses at the micro-level of individual work units (Satkers) across all ministries and agencies (MAs) in Indonesia. It further offers novelty by employing external budget revision data as a proxy for risk aversion behavior related to year-end government spending spikes. Research Objectives — This study aims to identify and quantify the impact of risk aversion behavior, driven by budget uncertainty, on year-end spending spikes among Satkers in Indonesia's ministries and agencies. The analysis focuses specifically on the accumulation of goods and capital expenditures, which constitute the primary components of year-end spending spikes. Research Methods — This study used quarterly budget revision and expenditure data from 13,080 Satkers across all MAs for the periods 2018–2022. A quasi-experimental approach using the instrumental variable-two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS) method was employed to mitigate potential biases caused by reverse causality and omitted variable bias. Empirical Results — The findings indicate a behavioral tendency toward risk aversion in response to budget uncertainty, which leads to year-end spending spikes. Empirical estimates showed that each additional external budget revision was associated with increased budget absorption by 1.697 percentage points, ceteris paribus. Furthermore, the manifestation of risk aversion behavior varied across islands and government sectors. Implications — To anticipate and mitigate spending spikes, the Ministry of Finance is encouraged to develop a data-driven monitoring system to track and predict Satker spending behavior. In addition, both the Ministry of Finance and the technical ministries should enhance their guidance and capacity-building efforts for Satker financial management personnel.
ANALISIS PRIORITAS MONITORING DAN EVALUASI PELAKSANAAN ANGGARAN KEMENTERIAN NEGARA/LEMBAGA BERDASARKAN MODEL ANALITYC HIERARCHY PROCESS Yalisman, Febrian
Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Vol. 7 No. 2
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

ABSTRACT Budget implementation monitoring and evaluation activities should be carried out systematically and standardly focusing on certain areas or departments that carry high risks. This study aims to develop a model for prioritizing ministry and agency to be monitored and evaluated intensively by the Directorate of Budget Implementation in the ministry and agency budget implementation evaluation activities. The model was established using a multicriteria approach developed through library research and interviews with practitioners. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used as an analytical tool to help decision-makers solve problems that are multicriteria in nature. The results show that budget implementation performance is the most important criteria with the highest priority weight of 0.347, followed by national priority (0.330), previous evaluation results (0.197), and the complexity of ministry and agency (0.126). Keywords: monitoring and evaluation, budget implementation, multicriteria, AnalyticHierarchy Process.   ABSTRAK Aktivitas monitoring dan evaluasi pelaksanaan anggaran hendaknya dilakukan secara sistematis dan terstandardisasi dengan fokus pada area atau departemen tertentu yang memiliki risiko tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyusun model penentuan prioritas Kementerian Negara/Lembaga yang akan dimonitor dan dievaluasi secara internsif oleh Direktorat PA dalam kegiatan Evaluasi Pelaksanaan Anggaran K/L. Model disusun dengan pendekatan multikriteria yang dikembangkan melalui studi literatur dan wawancara dengan praktisi. Metode Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) digunakan sebagai alat analisis untuk membantu pengambil keputusan dalam menyelesaikan permasalahan yang bersifat multikriteria. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kriteria Kinerja Pelaksanaan Anggaran merupakan kriteria terpenting dengan bobot prioritas tertinggi dengan bobot prioritas sebesar 0,347, disusul kriteria Prioritas Nasional (0,330), kriteria Hasil Evaluasi Sebelumnya (0,197) dan kriteria Kompleksitas K/L (0,126).  Kata kunci: monitoring dan evaluasi, pelaksanaan anggaran, multikriteria, AnalyticHierarchy Process.
Co-Authors Khoirunurrofik, Khoirunurrofik