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All Journal Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura JDE (Journal of Developing Economies)
Bekele, Dagim Tadesse
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Asymmetric Effect of Trade Openness on Output Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia Degu, Adisu Abebaw; Bekele, Dagim Tadesse; Ayenew, Belesity Bekalu; Abate, Chala Amante
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 8 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v8i1.40886

Abstract

 A better understanding of the effect openness on volatility can lead to more effective government policy that addresses the adverse outcomes of volatility. By using NARDL model, Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, and annual time-series data from the period 1981 to 2020, this study examined the effect of openness on output volatility in Ethiopia. From the NARDL bound test, the research find a long-run cointegration between output volatility, agricultural output, trade openness, lending rate, and money supply. We also found a long-run negative asymmetric effect, and short-run negative symmetric effect of openness on volatility”suggesting this open trading activity has a relationship that can reduce output volatility in Ethiopia. This possibility shows Ethiopia would benefit from international trade and openness reduces the adverse effects of volatility. Besides, we confirmed the positive asymmetric effect of agricultural output both in the long run and short run. The lending rate, that represents the cost of borrowing, has a positive effect on output volatility. The long-run and short-run coefficients of money supply have a negative and significant effect on output volatility.
The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Manufacturing Sector Value Added in Ethiopia: An Application of Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration Bekele, Dagim Tadesse
Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura Vol. 23 No. 1 (2020): April - July 2020
Publisher : Universitas Hayam Wuruk Perbanas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14414/jebav.v23i1.2164

Abstract

The role of the manufacturing sector for the economic growth and structural change is very low in Ethiopia and performing less compering with that of the other sectors in the economy. So, this research tried to look at how different macroeconomic variables affect the manufacturing sector value added by using annual time series data from 1982 to 2018 estimated by Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL). The result from the Bound test shows manufacturing sector value added has a long-run relationship with macroeconomic variables in the model. In the long-run, general inflation rate, exchange rate, and trade openness have a significant negative effect on the manufacturing sector value-added. In contrast, general government expenditure has a significant positive effect. Also, the Error Correction model shows an adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium of the manufacturing sector value-added. So, the government has to control the general inflation level, promote demand for domestic manufacturing products and competitiveness of domestic firms, and strengthen the backward link of the sector to decrease its import-input dependency to reduce the effect of exchange rate depressions. Lastly, effective and efficient government expenditure will have to be used to increase the manufacturing sector value-added.
Co-Authors Abate, Chala Amante Ayenew, Belesity Bekalu Degu, Adisu Abebaw