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All Journal Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura JDE (Journal of Developing Economies)
Degu, Adisu Abebaw
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Asymmetric Effect of Trade Openness on Output Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia Degu, Adisu Abebaw; Bekele, Dagim Tadesse; Ayenew, Belesity Bekalu; Abate, Chala Amante
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 8 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v8i1.40886

Abstract

 A better understanding of the effect openness on volatility can lead to more effective government policy that addresses the adverse outcomes of volatility. By using NARDL model, Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, and annual time-series data from the period 1981 to 2020, this study examined the effect of openness on output volatility in Ethiopia. From the NARDL bound test, the research find a long-run cointegration between output volatility, agricultural output, trade openness, lending rate, and money supply. We also found a long-run negative asymmetric effect, and short-run negative symmetric effect of openness on volatility”suggesting this open trading activity has a relationship that can reduce output volatility in Ethiopia. This possibility shows Ethiopia would benefit from international trade and openness reduces the adverse effects of volatility. Besides, we confirmed the positive asymmetric effect of agricultural output both in the long run and short run. The lending rate, that represents the cost of borrowing, has a positive effect on output volatility. The long-run and short-run coefficients of money supply have a negative and significant effect on output volatility.
The Effect of Sectoral Output Volatility on Economic Growth in Ethiopia Degu, Adisu Abebaw
Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura Vol. 24 No. 2 (2021): August - November 2021
Publisher : Universitas Hayam Wuruk Perbanas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14414/jebav.v24i2.2765

Abstract

This study examined the effect of sectoral output volatility on economic growth and the determinants of economic growth in the Ethiopian economy. The study used annual time series data spanning from 1981 to 2018 and included capital stock, working-age population, trade balance, and sectoral output volatility as an explanatory variable. Using the Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test, the study found a long-run relationship between economic growth and economic growth explanatory variables. From the ARDL model, capital stock and trade balance (which has been negative throughout the study period) was found to have a positive and negative significant effect on the economic growth of Ethiopia, respectively. In the long-run, volatility of industrial and service sector output growth had a negative and statistically significant effect on the economic growth of Ethiopia. In recent years the role of agriculture in the Ethiopian economy, particularly in terms of contribution to the national GDP, has been declining—indicating the growing importance of service and industrial sectors. Therefore, smoothening and maintaining the positive sectoral output growth is advisable for the betterment of the economy. Besides, balancing the foreign trade and curbing unrestricted importation is recommended as long as economic growth is concerned.
Co-Authors Abate, Chala Amante Ayenew, Belesity Bekalu Bekele, Dagim Tadesse