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Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemic Model with Asymptomatic Infection, Quarantine, Protection and Vaccination Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir; Agus Suryanto; Isnani Darti
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.2.3

Abstract

We discuss the dynamics of new COVID-19 epidemic model by considering asymptomatic infections and the policies such as quarantine, protection (adherence to health protocols), and vaccination. The proposed model contains nine subpopulations: susceptible (S), exposed (E), symptomatic infected (I), asymptomatic infected (A), recovered (R), death (D), protected (P), quarantined (Q), and vaccinated (V ). We first show the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions. The equilibrium points, basic reproduction number, and stability of equilibrium points, both locally and globally, are also investigated analytically. The proposed model has disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point. The disease-free equilibrium point always exists and is globally asymptotically stable if basic reproduction number is less than one. The endemic equilibrium point exists uniquely and is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. These properties have been confirmed by numerical simulations using the fourth order Runge-Kutta method. Numerical simulations show that the disease transmission rate of asymptomatic infection, quarantine rates, protection rate, and vaccination rates affect the basic reproduction number and hence also influence the stability of equilibrium points.
English Breakfast Program: Cara Mudah Pintar Berbahasa Inggris Yuli Agustina; Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir; Agung Winarto
JPPM (Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat) VOL. 5 NOMOR 1 MARET 2021 JPPM (Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat)
Publisher : Lembaga Publikasi Ilmiah dan Penerbitan (LPIP)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (582.109 KB) | DOI: 10.30595/jppm.v5i1.6902

Abstract

Tujuan dilaksanakan program English Breakfast (EB) untuk membantu siswa meningkatkan kemampuan berbahasa Inggris melalui pemberian kosa kata bahasa Inggris secara rutin yang nantinya berdampak terhadap hasil belajar siswa khususnya siswa Suntisart Wittaya School, Kabang District, Yala Province, Thailand. Program ini dilaksanakan sebanyak 3-4 kali setiap minggu dengan alokasi waktu 8-9 menit di pagi hari. Tahap-tahap yang dilakukan pada program ini yaitu: perencanaan, persiapan, pelaksanaan, pengamatan, dan refleksi. Adapun metode yang dilakukan dalam pelaksanaan EB yakni tanya jawab antara guru dengan siswa menggunakan berbagai media visual. Program English Breakfast menghasilkan data banyaknya kosa kata yang diberikan pada setiap pertemuan.  Selain itu, pengaruh program English Breakfast terhadap pembelajaran juga menghasilkan data rata-rata nilai harian siswa pada mata pelajaran English Conversation setelah pelaksanaan program English Breakfast. Program ini berjalan dengan lancar dan berdampak positif terhadap hasil belajar siswa pada mata pelajaran English Conversation. Jika program ini terus dilaksanakan secara rutin, maka kemampuan bahasa Inggris siswa semakin meningkat. Akibatnya, hasil belajar siswa pada mata pelajaran English Conversation juga menjadi optimal.
PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF COVID-19 COMPARTMENT MODEL IN INDONESIA USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir; Syaiful Anam
Jurnal Berkala Epidemiologi Vol. 10 No. 3 (2022): Jurnal Berkala Epidemiologi (Periodic Epidemiology Journal)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbe.V10I32022.283-292

Abstract

Background: The government established a vaccination program to deal with highly reactive COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. In obtaining accurate predictions of the dynamics of the compartment model of COVID-19 spread, a good parameter estimation technique was required.. Purpose: This research aims to apply Particle Swarm Optimization as a parameter estimation method to obtain parameters value from the Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered compartment model of COVID-19 cases. Methods: This research was conducted in April-May 2020 in Indonesia with exploratory design research.  The researchers used the data on COVID-19 cases in Indonesia, which was accessed at covid19.go.id. The data set contained the number of reactive cases, vaccinated cases, and recovered cases. The data set was used to estimate the parameters of the COVID-19 compartment model. The results were shown by numerical simulations that apply to the Matlab program. Results: Research shows that the parameters estimated using Particle Swarm Optimization have a fairly good value because the mean square error is relatively small compared to the data size used. Reactive cases of COVID-19 have decreased until August 21, 2021. Next, reactive cases of COVID-19 will increase until the end of 2021. It is because the virus infection rate of the vaccinated population is positive . If  occurs before the stationary point, then the reactive cases of COVID-19 will decrease mathematically. Conclusion: Particle Swarm Optimization methods can estimate parameters well based on mean square error and the graphs that can describe the behavior of COVID-19 cases in the future.
Comparison of Fractional-Order Monkeypox Model with Singular and Non-Singular Kernels Musafir, Raqqasyi Rahmatullah; Suryanto, Agus; Darti, Isnani; Trisilowati, Trisilowati
Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Volume 5, Issue 1: June 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjbm.v5i1.24920

Abstract

The singularity of the kernel of the Caputo fractional derivative has become an issue, leading many researchers to consider the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivative in epidemic models where the kernel is non-singular. In this context, the objective of this study is to compare the calibration and forecasting performance of fractional-order monkeypox models with singular and nonsingular kernels, represented by the model with respect to the Caputo operator and the ABC operator, respectively. We have proposed a monkeypox epidemic model with respect to the ABC operator (MPXABC), where the model with respect to the Caputo derivative (MPXC) has been proposed in previous research. We have analyzed the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Three equilibrium points of the model are endemic, human endemic, and monkeypox-free, and their global stability has been investigated. The global dynamics of the MPXABC are the same as those of the MPXC. In evaluating the performance, we collected secondary data on weekly monkeypox cases from June 1 to November 23, 2022, in the USA. Parameter estimation has been performed using the least squares method, while the solutions of the model have been determined numerically using a predictor-corrector scheme. The benchmark for performance has been determined based on the root mean square error. Data calibration and forecasting indicate that the MPXC generally has the best performance for each value of the derivative order. For certain values of derivative order, the MPXABC performs better than the corresponding firstorder model. However, generally, the corresponding first-order model performs better than the MPXABC. Depending on the data trends and the specified orders, the MPXC outperforms the MPXABC. Thus, the singularity issue of the Caputo derivative does not always have a negative impact on model fitting to data.
Peningkatan Kompetensi Guru Madrasah Aliyah Di Kota Batu dalam Pembelajaran Matematika Berbasis Digital Menggunakan Artificial Intelligence (DeepSeek-Canva) Marsudi, Marsudi; Suryanto, Agus; Darti, Isnani; Widhiatmoko, Fery; Musafir, Raqqasyi Rahmatullah
TRI DHARMA MANDIRI: Dissemination and Downstreaming of Research to the Community (Journal of Community Engagement) Vol 5 No 2 (2025)
Publisher : SMONAGENES Research Center, Univeritas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jtridharma.2025.005.02.164

Abstract

Kemajuan teknologi informasi membuka peluang besar bagi pengembangan pembelajaran matematika berbasis digital di Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Kota Batu, meskipun masih terdapat kesenjangan keterampilan teknologi di kalangan guru dan resistensi terhadap perubahan metode. Untuk menjawab tantangan tersebut, Tim Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (PKM) 2025 Departemen Matematika Universitas Brawijaya, yang terdiri atas lima dosen dan lima mahasiswa, menyelenggarakan pelatihan peningkatan kompetensi guru dalam pemanfaatan Artificial Intelligence (AI) DeepSeek dan aplikasi Canva sebagai media pembelajaran. Kegiatan berlangsung pada Jumat, 1 Agustus 2025 di MAN Batu dengan peserta 18 guru matematika MA dan MTs. Metode pelaksanaan meliputi koordinasi, penyebaran kuesioner, penyampaian materi, praktik pembuatan bahan ajar digital, diskusi interaktif, pendampingan kelompok, serta evaluasi melalui pre-test dan post-test. Hasil pelatihan menunjukkan peningkatan pengetahuan dan keterampilan guru, yaitu sebesar 8,66% pada penggunaan DeepSeek dan 14,7% pada Canva. Analisis statistik dengan paired t-test menegaskan bahwa peningkatan tersebut signifikan pada kedua materi, sehingga pelatihan terbukti efektif. Selain itu, suasana pelatihan yang aktif dan partisipatif mendorong motivasi guru untuk mengintegrasikan teknologi ke dalam proses pembelajaran. Monitoring dan evaluasi mengindikasikan bahwa program ini tidak hanya memperluas literasi digital, tetapi juga memperkuat kemampuan guru dalam merancang pembelajaran matematika yang inovatif, interaktif, dan berbasis teknologi digital. Disimpulkan bahwa pelatihan ini efektif meningkatkan kompetensi guru, meskipun diperlukan program lanjutan dengan durasi lebih panjang dan pendampingan berkelanjutan agar manfaatnya lebih optimal serta dapat diimplementasikan secara konsisten dalam praktik pembelajaran. KATA KUNCI: Artificial Intelligence; DeepSeek-Canva; kompetensi guru; pembelajaran matematika digital; pengabdian kepada masyarakat