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Fitri, Safama
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Mathematics

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Perbandingan Metode Moving Average dan Metode Naïve Dalam Peramalan Data Kemiskinan Kumila, Ais; Sholihah, Baqiyatus; Evizia, Evizia; Safitri, Nur; Fitri, Safama
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 3, No 1 (2019): April
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (732.257 KB) | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v3i1.764

Abstract

Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi metode terbaik pada sistem peramalan dengan menggunakan metode Moving Average (SMA, WMA, dan EMA) dan metode Naive. Pada tahap simulasi, kami menggunakan data jumlah kemiskinan penduduk Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tahun 2002-2018 untuk memprediksi data tahun 2019. Adapun, model dievaluasi untuk melihat tingkat akurasi masing-masing metode berdasarkan nilai MAD, MSE, RMSE dan MAPE. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi data dari metode-metode yang diuji, diketahui bahwa metode Naive paling akurat dengan hasil prediksi tahun 2019 sebesar 737.460 dengan MAD, MSE, RMSE dan MAPE berturut-turut sebesar 41.427,188; 2.711.468.146; 52.071,760; dan 0.043.Abstract: This study aims to predict the best method on the forecasting system using the Moving Average method (SMA, WMA, and EMA) and the Naive method. In the simulation phase, we used data on the Number of Poverty of the Population of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) in 2002-2018 to predict the Poverty of Population of the Province of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) in 2019. Meanwhile, the model was evaluated to see the accuracy of each method based on the value MAD, MSE, RMSE and MAPE. Based on the simulation results of the data from the methods tested, it can be seen that the Naive method is most accurate with the results of the 2019 prediction of 737,460 with MAD, MSE, RMSE and MAPE in the amount of 41.427,188; 2.711.468.146; 52.071,760; and 0.043.
Co-Authors Evizia, Evizia Kumila, Ais Safitri, Nur Sholihah, Baqiyatus