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All Journal Media Statistika Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Inferensi
Muhammad Sjahid Akbar
Departemen Statistika Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya
Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation

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Pendekatan Cart untuk Mendapatkan Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Terjangkitnya Penyakit Demam Tifoid di Aceh Utara Yuanita, Dina; Akbar, Muhammad Sjahid; Harini, Sri
CAUCHY Vol 1, No 2 (2010): CAUCHY
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (266.537 KB) | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v1i2.1708

Abstract

Typhoid fever is a disease caused by Salmonella typhi bacteria. It is attack the digestive tract. Typhoid fever caused by poor sanitation and personal hygiene is not good. According to the Basic Health Research in 2007 showed that the prevalence of typhoid fever in Indonesia of 1.6%. NAD Province is hight typhoid fever prevalence(2,96 %). Because Having traced the biggest contributor was derived from NAD. Therefore, theresearch conducted to find factors that influence the outbreak of typhoid fever in NAD. research using the CART Method. The results of the analysis indicate that the main factor causing typhoid fever was drinking water reservoirs. The other factors are waste water reservoirs, the physical quality of drinking water, a habit washing hands with soap before eating, the bowel, the dump, gender, socioeconomic status, habits of washing hands with soap after defecation and health education.
BAGGING REGRESI LOGISTIK ORDINAL PADA STATUS GIZI BALITA Akbar, Muhammad Sjahid; Mukarromah, Adatul; Paramita, Lalita
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 3, No 2 (2010): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (340.151 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.3.2.103-116

Abstract

World Health Organization-National Centre for Health Statistic (WHO-NCHS) is standart nutritional status used in Indonesia, it based on Kartu Menuju Sehat (KMS). These Indices can be expressed in terms of Z-score based Weight-for-Age. This Indices need comparison considering the fact which cause nutritional status not only Weight-for-Age. The aim from this research to obtain bagging ordinal logistics regression for WHO-NCHS nutritional status and new nutritional status. A new nutritional status expressed in terms of cluster, while classification function expressed from logit model of ordinal logistics regression. The result for new nutritional status bagging obtained at 60 bootstrap replicated that is 76.345%, this model can decrease misclassification until 22.046%. While bagging for WHO-NCHS nutritional status can increase accurate classification from single data set 75.863% at 150 bootstrap replicated.   Keywords: Child nutritional status, Bagging, Ordinal logistics regression.
Kajian Tentang Tingkat Efisiensi Pelayanan Kesehatan Rumah Sakit Umum Pemerintah Kabupaten/Kota Di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Metode PCA-DEA Nita Cahyani; Muhammad Sjahid Akbar; Destri Susilaningrum
Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS Vol 1, No 1 (2012): Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS (ISSN 2301-928X)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (LPPM), ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (165.348 KB) | DOI: 10.12962/j23373520.v1i1.604

Abstract

Salah satu prioritas pembangunan provinsi Jawa Timur adalah meningkatkan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. Kualitas pelayanan kesehatan dapat diukur melalui efisiensi pelayanan kesehatan di rumah sakit. Efisiensi yang dimaksud adalah adanya keseimbangan antara yang dilayani dan yang melayani, selanjutnya disebut sebagai output dan input. Pada penelitian ini ingin diketahui tingkat efisiensi 39 rumah sakit umum pemerintah Kabupaten/Kota di Jawa Timur dengan menggunakan metode Principal Component Analysis-Data Enpelovment Analysis (PCA-DEA) berorientasi input. Model yang digunakan yaitu DEA-CCR, DEA-BCC, PCA-CCR, dan PCA-BCC. Data input yang digunakan adalah sumber daya kesehatan di rumah sakit umum dan data output yang digunakan berupa jumlah pasien rawat inap dan jumlah pasien rawat jalan. Dari berbagai model PCA-DEA yang digunakan dihasilkan nilai efisiensi yang berbeda untuk rumah sakit umum yang sama dan hanya satu rumah sakit umum yang memiliki nilai efisiensi yang tetap atau konsisten diantara rumah sakit- rumah sakit tersebut, yaitu rumah sakit umum Kanjuruhan Kepanjen Malang.
Penerapan Diagram Kendali Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Covariance Matrix (MEWMC) pada Pengendalian Kualitas Proses Produksi Air di PDAM Surya Sembada Kota Surabaya Yani Trimardiani; Muhammad Sjahid Akbar; Wibawati Wibawati
Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS Vol 9, No 2 (2020)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (LPPM), ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j23373520.v9i2.57058

Abstract

PDAM Surya Sembada Kota Surabaya adalah Badan Usaha Milik Daerah (BUMD) yang mengelola penyediaan air bersih bagi masyarakat Kota Surabaya. Terdapat 3 karakteristik utama kualitas air, yaitu kekeruhan, zat organik dan sisa chlor dimana ketiga karakteristik tersebut saling berhubungan. Oleh karena itu, pengendalian proses produksi air dilakukan secara multivariat dengan diagram kendali Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Covariance Matrix (MEWMC) untuk pengendalian variabilitas proses. Pada penelitian ini, didapatkan pembobot λ optimum untuk diagram kendali MEWMC yaitu λ = 0,1. Variabilitas proses produksi air selama musim kemarau telah terkendali secara statistik setelah dilakukan pengendalian ke-13, sedangkan variabilitas proses proses produksi air selama musim hujan telah terkendali secara statistik pada pengendalian pertama. Penyebab variabilitas proses produksi air yang tidak terkendali secara statistik karena faktor bahan baku, pengukuran, metode, mesin, dan lingkungan.
Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization for Ammunition caliber 57 mm C-60 Het Muhammad Sjahid Akbar
Jurnal ILMU DASAR Vol 10 No 2 (2009)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (596.125 KB)

Abstract

Ammunition is a tool that works to sabotage or destroy the target. Weapons Laboratory in TNI AL have ammunition caliber 57 mm C-60 Het, with more than 10 years of age. Ammunition caliber 57 mm C-60 Het has three sections, projectile, propellant, and primer.  Primary part of this ammunition is not working well, so that it is necessary to repair this section. Repairing of primary part is done  by changing the chemical compound AB3, DF3, and GI2. The purpose of this study is to determine chemical composition of primary part, so that it can optimize the sensitivity and detonation. The results show that the optimization begins with model estimation of two response by Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Futher, model estimation for each response is tranformed into individual desirability function to form joint desirability function. Results optimization caliber ammunition 57 mm C-60 by Generalized Reduced Gradient method (GRG), obtained sensitivity of 9.93 cm and the detonation of 108.68 dB, with compotition AB3 compound was 48.8 grams, DF3 compound was 21.0025 grams, and GI2 compound was 17 grams. 
Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang dan Barang di Bandar Udara Internasional Juanda dan Pelabuhan Tanjung Perak Menggunakan Model Hybrid ARIMAX dan Deep Learning Neural Networks Bella Puspa Dewani; Suhartono Suhartono; Muhammad Sjahid Akbar
Inferensi Vol 2, No 1 (2019): Inferensi
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (888.03 KB) | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v2i1.6805

Abstract

Arus penumpang dan barang di Bandar Udara Internasional Juanda dan Pelabuhan Tanjung Perak cenderung fluktuatif dan tidak menentu. Oleh karena itu diperlukan pengetahuan akan keadaan arus penumpang dan barang di masa depan, agar pengembangan yang dilakukan tepat dan berguna. Penelitian ini dilakukan bertujuan untuk memodelkan serta mendapatkan peramalan mengenai jumlah penumpang dan barang di Bandar Udara Internasional Juanda dan Pelabuhan Tanjung Perak dengan membandingkan 5 model. Model tersebut antara lain model ARIMAX, model FFNN, model DLNN dengan 2 hidden layer, model hybrid ARIMAX-FFNN dan model hybrid ARIMAX-DLNN untuk mendapatkan hasil peramalan terbaik. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistika (BPS). Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan mulai Januari 2001 hingga Desember 2017 untuk Bandar Udara Internasional Juanda, sedangkan Pelabuhan Tanjung Perak mulai Januari 2006. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan model hybrid ARIMAX-DLNN memiliki kemampuan yang baik untuk menangkap pola data yang beragam dan menghasilkan ramalan yang baik pada data training. Hal tersebut dilihat dari nilai RMSEP yang lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan model lainnya. Namun model DLNN memiliki kemampuan yang baik dalam meramalkan data testing. Model terbaik untuk 8 variabel yang digunakan, terdapat 7 variabel dengan model terbaik yaitu model DLNN, sedangkan sisanya model hybrid ARIMAX-DLNN.
FUZZY MODELING APPROACH AND GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION FOR DUAL RESPONSE SURFACE Dedy Dwi Prastyo; Muhammad Sjahid Akbar; Bambang Widjanorko Otok
Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri Vol. 9 No. 2 (2007): DECEMBER 2007
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (220.088 KB) | DOI: 10.9744/jti.9.2.102-111

Abstract

Dual Response Surface (DRS) with Lagrange multiplier is one of the most familiar classical multi response surface methods. Classical DRS optimization doesn't concern about the quality characteristic of responses. In this paper, fuzzy approach is proposed for modeling DRS and quality characteristic of response simultaneously. The proposed method represented the object's quality characteristic physically. The proposed method is applied to composite carbon drilling process and resulting nonlinear function that to be determined its optimal point. Many optimization methods fail to reach global optimum point because the non linear function is multimodal. Therefore, we used genetic algorithm for finding the global optimum point.
KINERJA ECONOMIZER PADA BOILER Muhammad Sjahid Akbar; Fredi Suryadi; Dedy Dwi Prastyo
Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri Vol. 11 No. 1 (2009): JUNE 2009
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (260.399 KB) | DOI: 10.9744/jti.11.1.72-81

Abstract

This paper employed the dual response approach for case of Multivariate Robust Parameter Design (MRPD) which is developed by Del Castillo and Miro Quesada. MRPD method can be applied for any design of experiment. The optimization in this method uses minimizing variance function with restriction on mean function. In this paper, MRPD is applied to the case of optimization of heat transfer efectivity and operational cost at economizer. Those two responses are optimized by setting the level of control factors; diametre of tube hole, transversal spacing, and fin nearness. Temperature of feedwater is hold as a noise factor. Optimization is calculated by fmincon in MATLAB 7.0. The optimal condition for heat tranfer efectivity is 77.17% and operational cost is 30.58 kW. The optimal condition is attained at diametre of tube hole 1.5 inch, transversal spacing 3.5 inch, and fin density 3 fin/inch. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia: Penelitian ini menggunakan metode pendekatan dual response terhadap kasus Multivariate Robust Parameter Design (MRPD) yang dikembangkan oleh Del Castillo dan Miro Quesada. Metode MRPD tidak mensyaratkan jenis rancangan percobaan yang dapat digunakan dalam proses optimasi, yang dilakukan dengan meminimalkan fungsi varians terhadap kendala fungsi rerata. Pada penelitian ini, metode MRPD diterapkan untuk kasus pencarian nilai optimal respon yaitu efektifitas perpindahan panas dan biaya operasi pada economizer. Optimasi kedua respon dilakukan dengan cara mengoptimalkan level faktor kontrol diameter luar tubing, transversal spacing, dan kerapatan fin. Temperatur feedwater berlaku sebagai faktor noise. Optimasi dilakukan dengan bantuan fmincon pada MATLAB 7.0 yang menghasilkan kondisi optimum untuk efektifitas perpindahan panas sebesar 77,17% dan biaya operasi sebesar 30,58 kW. Kondisi tersebut dicapai pada saat level diameter luar tubing sebesar 1,5 inci, transversal spacing sebesar 3,5 inci, dan kerapatan fin sebesar 3 fin/inci. Kata kunci: Economizer, dual response, Multivariate Robust Parameter Design
APPLICATION OF THE DYNAMIC FACTOR MODEL ON NOWCASTING SECTORAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA Supriyatna, Putu Krishnanda; Prastyo, Dedy Dwi; Akbar, Muhammad Sjahid
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 17, No 2 (2024): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.17.2.128-139

Abstract

Economic growth is crucial for planning, yet delayed data releases challenge timely decision-making. Nowcasting offers near-real-time insights using high-frequency indicators (released monthly, weekly, or even daily) to predict low-frequency variables (quarterly or yearly). This study uses high-frequency indicators (monthly), such as stock price changes, air quality, transportation data, financial conditions, and Google Trends, to nowcast quarterly GDP through the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). The data used span from January 2010 until March 2023, which is split into two: January 2010 until March 2022 for training data and the rest as testing data. Compared to the benchmark Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARMAX) model, DFM demonstrates superior accuracy with lower symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE). In addition, to evaluate the model performance in nowcasting the GDP across the sector using DFM, the additional metrics, i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Adjusted R-squared, concluded that in the industrial and transportation sectors results in sufficient nowcasting of GDP, Meanwhile, In the financial sector, the results of the nowcasting GDP give poor estimation results that need improvement.
EID AL-FITR INFLUENCES THE NUMBER OF TRAIN PASSENGERS ON THE SUMATRA ISLAND (CALENDAR VARIATIONS TIME SERIES MODEL) Akbar, Muhammad Sjahid; Safira, Dinda Ayu; Fadhilah, Rahmi; Damayanti, Salma; Riskianto, Riskianto; Puthy, Khem
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2191-2202

Abstract

The Train is one of the transportation options for land travel on the island of Sumatra because of its affordable cost, comfort, and fast mobility. The majority of the population of Sumatra Island who are Muslims influenced the sharp increase in the number of train passengers during Eid Al-Fitr due to the large number of residents who returned to their hometowns (Sumatra Island). The time of Eid Al-Fitr will change every year on the Gregorian calendar, but it is always the same if using the Hijri calendar. This study aims to predict the number of train passengers on the island of Sumatra based on calendar variations (Eid Al-Fitr). To overcome this calendar variation, time series modeling will be used with the addition of exogenous variables (ARIMAX). This model consists of a time series regression equation added with a time series model of the residual regression equation of an exogenous variable. The resulting model can forecast the number of train passengers in the next few months and find that Eid Al-Fitr affects the data. Every Eid Al-Fitr, there is an increase in the number of train passengers by 49 passengers. The model obtained is in the good category with MAPE in-sample of 18.12% and out-sample of 9.93%.
Co-Authors Adatul Mukarromah Bambang Widjanorko Otok Bambang Widjanorko Otok Bella Puspa Dewani Damayanti, Salma Dedy Dwi Prastyo Destri Susilaningrum Dina Yuanita Fadhilah, Rahmi Fredi Suryadi Fredi Suryadi Lalita Paramita Nita Cahyani Puthy, Khem Riskianto, Riskianto Safira, Dinda Ayu Sri Harini Suhartono Suhartono Supriyatna, Putu Krishnanda Wibawati Wibawati Yani Trimardiani