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Determination of North Sulawesi Agricultural Insurance Premiums Based on Rainfall Index Using the Black-Scholes Model Novianti, Saqila; Nugraha, Dwita Safira; Wiliya, Wiliya
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), March 2021
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v2i1.156

Abstract

This article discusses the use of the Black Scholes model to calculate insurance premium prices based on the rainfall index. The Black Scholes model is one of the models used to determine option prices. The research method used is to study the material through mathematics journals and collect data. The data used in this study are rainfall data and rice production data in North Sulawesi from 2018 to 2020. Based on the results and discussion, the quarterly rainfall data that has a strong correlation is the third quarter rainfall. At the 5th percentile, the third quarter rainfall data is 450.22 mm. For the latest rainfall data size (450.22 mm) the premium obtained is IDR 231,912.09. From the calculation results, the higher the value for both sizes, the greater.
Determination of the Contribution of the Reserve Fund for Flood Natural Disaster Management in the DKI Jakarta Region Nugraha, Dwita Safira; Susanti, Dwi; Sukono, Sukono
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol. 2 No. 4 (2021): International Journal of Global Operations Research (IJGOR), November 2021
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v2i4.88

Abstract

Floods are natural disasters that are quite difficult to predict. As a result, there are many losses both materially, morally and even to the point of taking lives. In Indonesia, one of the areas that experience flooding the most is DKI Jakarta. In early 2020, flooding was the biggest cause of loss in the region. The role of the people of DKI Jakarta is very important in collecting contributions to the reserve fund for disaster emergency response. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the amount of reserve fund contributions for community-based flood disaster management in the DKI Jakarta area based on the Collective Risk Model method approach, using Poisson and Log-Normal distributions, including parameter estimates  and (μ,σ) , resulting in an estimate of the expected magnitude of the risk of loss. Based on these expectations, the contribution amount can be calculated using the Individual and Collective Risk Model. The result of this research is the contribution of funds which is calculated based on the principle of expected value