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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Afrianus, Erya
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

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ACADEMIC EVALUATION VALUE MEDIATES THE INFLUENCE OF BLENDED LEARNING METHODS ON THE IMPLEMENTATION VALUE OF THE ACTUALIZATION OF CPNS BPS LATSAR PARTICIPANTS IN 2021 Afrianus, Erya; Edi Sugiono
Jurnal Ekonomi Vol. 11 No. 01 (2022): Jurnal Ekonomi
Publisher : SEAN Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1385.766 KB)

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of the Blended Learning learning method (Massive Open Online Course, Distance Learning and Classical) on the Evaluation of the Implementation of Actualization through the Academic Evaluation of of Latsar CPNS BPS Participants in 2021, and for information, input, and study materials for work units in human resource development. BPS through the evaluation of Latsar CPNS learning at the BPS Education and Training Center and the Training Institute more broadly. Independent variables: Massive Open Online Course (X1), Distance Learning (X2) and Classical (X3). The dependent variable is Academic Evaluation (Y1) as an intervening variable and Evaluation of Actualization Implementation (Y2). The research approach used is secondary data processing from the results of the Latsar CPNS BPS Participants in 2021. The model was analyzed using AMOS statistical software version 22. The data processed were 452 samples from 523 participant population data with purposive sampling. This study found that the Academic Evaluation Value had an effect and was significant on the Evaluation Value of the Implementation of Actualization. The implementation of actualization was influenced by the blended learning learning method, both positive and negative and significant, direct and indirect effects through the Academic Evaluation of Latsar CPNS participants in 2021
Forecasting Regional Economic Growth Using TVARX: Model Accuracy Evaluation in Banten Province Vega, Amelia; Fajar, Muhammad; Prayitno, Hendro; Afrianus, Erya
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 3 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i3pp551-562

Abstract

Forecasting regional economic performance is essential for supporting timely and responsive policy planning. This study aims to forecast the Gross Regional Domestic Product at constant prices (GRDP) in Banten Province for the second to fourth quarters of 2025 using the Time-Varying Autoregressive model with Exogenous Variables (TVARX). The model incorporates household final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, exchange rates, and export values as exogenous variables. Model performance was evaluated by comparing combinations of training-testing data proportions (90:10, 80:20, 70:30, and 60:40) and two estimation approaches (local constant and local linear), using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the predictive accuracy metric. All variables were transformed into logarithmic form and differenced to ensure stationarity. The results indicate that the model using a 90:10 data split and the local linear estimation approach yielded the most accurate prediction, with the lowest MAPE value of 0.6%. The best-performing model was then applied to forecast out-of-sample GRDP CP for the next three quarters, with its year-on-year growth subsequently analyzed. These findings are expected to serve as a basis for data-driven economic analysis and support macroeconomic planning that is responsive to short-term structural dynamics.
Co-Authors Muhammad Fajar Prayitno, Hendro Sugiono, Edi Vega, Amelia