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All Journal TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) International Journal of Local Economic Governance
Asyrofa Rahmi
Universitas Brawijaya
Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Regression Modelling for Precipitation Prediction Using Genetic Algorithms Asyrofa Rahmi; Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 15, No 3: September 2017
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v15i3.4028

Abstract

This paper discusses the formation of an appropriate regression model in precipitation prediction. Precipitation prediction has a major influence to multiply the agricultural production of potatoes in Tengger, East Java, Indonesia. Periodically, the precipitation has non-linear patterns. By using a non-linear approach, the prediction of precipitation produces more accurate results. Genetic algorithm (GA) functioning chooses precipitation period which forms the best model. To prevent early convergence, testing the best combination value of crossover rate and mutation rate is done. To test the accuracy of the predicted results are used Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as a benchmark. Based on the RMSE value of each method on every location, prediction using GA-Non-Linear Regression is better than Fuzzy Tsukamoto for each location. Compared to Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive-Seemingly Unrelated Regression (GSTAR-SUR), precipitation prediction using GA is better. This has been proved that for 3 locations GA is superior and on 1 location, GA has the least value of deviation level.
Profit Optimization Based on Total Production in Textile Home Industry Using Evolution Strategies Algorithms Mabafasa Al Khuluqi; Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy; Asyrofa Rahmi
e-2477-1929
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Service, University of Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (900.795 KB) | DOI: 10.21776/ub.ijleg.2016.002.02.2

Abstract

 Profit optimization became one of the main goals of the production process of home industry. A maximum profit can be achieved with proper planning of production. In the process of implementation, production planning has many constraints such as lot sizing, limited stock, overtime work and the many products derived from the same source. To address the problem, we develop computer software using a heuristic method called evolution strategy (ES). ES has capability to solve optimization problems with nearly optimal results. The result of the calculation process of evolution strategy algorithm was compared with data from the source. Computational analysis shows that ES produces a production plan that has profit of Rp 5,324,000. It is bigger than manual production plan that has profit of Rp 2,747,000. Keywords: home industry, profit, optimization, production, evolution strategies 
Co-Authors Mabafasa Al Khuluqi Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy