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Henry Kuswanto
Petra Christian University
Computer Science & IT

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ENHANCED NEURO-FUZZY ARCHITECTURE FOR ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING Hany Ferdinandoa; Felix Pasila; Henry Kuswanto
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 8, No 2: August 2010
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v8i2.609

Abstract

Previous researches about electrical load time series data forecasting showed that the result was not satisfying. This paper elaborates the enhanced neuro-fuzzy architecture for the same application. The system uses Gaussian membership function (GMF) for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic system. The training algorithm is Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to adjust the parameters in order to get better forecasting system than the previous researches. The electrical load was taken from East Java-Bali from September 2005 to August 2007. The architecture uses 4 inputs, 3 outputs with 5 GMFs. The system uses the following parameters: momentum=0.005, gamma=0.0005 and wildness factor=1.001. The MSE for short term forecasting for January to March 2007 is 0.0010, but the long term forecasting for June to August 2007 has MSE 0.0011. 
Co-Authors Felix Pasila Hany Ferdinandoa