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Monica Widya Putri
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

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Comparison of Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Trend Analysis Forecasting Methods on Art Board Production Demand (Case Study of PT Pindo Deli Pulp and Paper Mills 1) Monica Widya Putri; Fahriza Nurul Azizah
JRSI (Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem dan Industri) Vol 8 No 02 (2021): Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri - Desember 2021
Publisher : School of Industrial and System Engineering, Telkom University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25124/jrsi.v8i02.500

Abstract

Salah satu perusahaan yang bergerak pada industri manufaktur adalah PT Pindo Deli Pulp and Mills 1, yang memproduksi berbagai macam kertas, dan tissue. Art Board merupakan jenis kertas yang diproduksi PT Pindo Deli Pulp and Mills 1, serta cukup diminati customer. Namun seringkali permintaan customer terhadap produk Art Board mengalami fluktuasi. Permintaan produk termasuk aspek penting untuk dievaluasi, karena apabila perusahaan tidak melakukan perencanaan dengan tepat perusahaan akan mengalami kerugian finansial. Peramalan dapat dijadikan salah satu penunjang pengambilan keputusan perusahaan. Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, dan Trend Analysis merupakan metode yang digunakan untuk menunjang peramalan pada penelitian ini, dimana tahap selanjutnya adalah analisis tingkat akurasi metode peramalan dengan parameter nilai MAD, MSE, standard error, bias, serta peramalan periode selanjutnya. Berdasarkan pengumpulan data hingga analisis yang telah dilakukan diperoleh bahwa metode moving average periode 1 merupakan metode terbaik dalam meramalkan permintaan produksi pada produk Art Board dengan peramalan periode berikutnya sebanyak 19410 unit, MAD sejumlah 3186,182, MSE sejumlah 16001250, serta bias sejumlah 634.546 sementara itu standard error sejumlah 4422.339.
Comparison of Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Trend Analysis Forecasting Methods on Art Board Production Demand (Case Study of PT Pindo Deli Pulp and Paper Mills 1) Monica Widya Putri; Fahriza Nurul Azizah
Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri Vol 8 No 02 (2021): Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri
Publisher : School of Industrial and System Engineering, Telkom University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25124/jrsi.v8i02.500

Abstract

One of the companies engaged in the manufacturing industry is PT Pindo Deli Pulp and Mills 1, whichproduces various kinds of paper and tissue. Art Board is a type of paper produced by PT Pindo Deli Pulpand Mills 1, and is quite attractive to customers. However, customer demand for Art Board products oftenfluctuates. Product demand is an important aspect to be evaluated, because if the company does not planproperly the company will experience financial losses. Forecasting can be used as a support for companydecision making. Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Trend Analysis are the methodsused to support forecasting in this study, where the next step is to analyze the accuracy of the forecastingmethod with the parameter values of MAD, MSE, standard error, bias, and forecasting for the next period.Based on data collection and analysis, it is found that the period 1 moving average method is the bestmethod for forecasting production demand for Art Board products with forecasting for the next period of19410 units, MAD of 3186,182, MSE of 16001250, and a bias of 634,546 meanwhile the standard error is4422,339.
Co-Authors Fahriza Nurul Azizah