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All Journal Jurnal Matematika: MANTIK
Deltha Airuzsh Lubis
Universitas Padjajaran, Bandung
Mathematics

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Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen dengan Metode Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) dan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Deltha Airuzsh Lubis; Muhamad Budiman Johra; Gumgum Darmawan
Jurnal Matematika MANTIK Vol. 3 No. 2 (2017): Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1050.728 KB) | DOI: 10.15642/mantik.2017.3.2.74-82

Abstract

Consumer Price Index (CPI) are the indicators used to measure the inflation and deflation of a group of goods and services in general. Forecasting CPI to be important as early detection in facing price hikes. This study uses the SSA and SARIMA. SARIMA a parametric model that requires various assumptions while SSA is a nonparametric technique that is free from a variety of assumptions, but both methods require seasonal patterns in the data. Based on the research results, methods of SSA with length window(L) of 24 and a grouping of 4 (1 group of seasonal and 3 groups of trends) and SARIMA models of order (0,1,1), (0,1,1) 6 is the most accurate and reliable models in forecasting CPI to the value Padang Sidempuan City. Forecasting CPI Padang Sidempuan City for the next 5 months with SSA method and SARIMA (0,1,1), (0,1,1) 6 shows the pattern of a trend is likely to increase but forecasting the 5th month with SSA method showed a surge in the value of CPI high or high inflation will occur.
Co-Authors Gumgum Darmawan Muhamad Budiman Johra